Match Info

BRAZIL: Gaucho - Relegation Group - Round 6

Date: 15 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Bento Freitas (Pelotas)


	Brasil de Pelotas		Avenida

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.2	4.33	Watch
	2	2.95	3.75
				Watch
	2.04	2.91	3.95
	1.84	3.17	4.38	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4.2
	1.85	3.2	4.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (1.99)	3.09 ↑ (3.07)	4.16 ↑ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brasil de Pelotas
48.2%

Draw
29.7%

Avenida
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

29.8%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

29.4%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brasil de Pelotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Avenida has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brasil de Pelotas than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avenida than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Brasil de Pelotas - Avenida Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Oliveira (G) 8. Alan Bald 4. Bruno Miguel 2. Danilo Guimaraes 3. Guilherme Cerqueira 6. Higor (C) 11. Higor Farias 10. Jota 5. Juliano Fabro 9. Sorriso 7. Vini Charopem	1. Rodrigo Mama (G) 5. Amaral 10. Bustamante H. 11. Caique 6. Jimenez J. 7. Laion 15. Luiz Meneses 3. Micael 9. Michel 4. Vitor Dadalt 8. Ze Vitor
Substitutes
22. Alan Gobetti (G) 13. Aquila 20. Gabriel Macedo 17. Jefinho 15. Joao Victor 18. Kaue 19. Marcel 16. Milar A. 14. Murillo Lima 21. Totonho 12. Wellington Santana (G)	19. Brayan 16. David Luis 12. Gabriel Toebe (G) 21. Gorgoroso Y. 20. JP Bardales 2. Kevlin 13. Leo Cruz 23. Paniagua M. 14. Rafael Klein 22. Ronald (G) 25. Vitor Junior 18. Yander

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Alan Bald 🟨,
43', Ze Vitor ↓, Kevlin ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sorriso ↓, Jefinho ↑,
46', Higor ↓, Murillo Lima ↑,
52', Michel ↓, JP Bardales ↑,
52', Jimenez J. ↓, David Luis ↑,
60', Danilo Guimaraes ↓, Marcel ↑,
61', Guilherme Cerqueira 🟨,
67', 0 - 1, Bustamante H. ⚽,
73', Higor Farias ↓, Totonho ↑,
76', Caique ↓, Brayan ↑,
76', Luiz Meneses ↓, Gorgoroso Y. ↑,
80', Alan Bald ↓, Kaue ↑,
89', Kevlin 🟨,
90+3', Murillo Lima 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Brasil de Pelotas won 1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Brasil de Pelotas will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Brasil de Pelotas won 3 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14:10 (average 1.3:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Brasil de Pelotas won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:3 (average 2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brasil de Pelotas
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
08.03.25	EC São José Porto Alegre - Brasil de Pelotas	2:1 ✺
05.03.25	Brasil de Pelotas - EC Pelotas	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	EC Pelotas - Brasil de Pelotas	0:0 ✺
22.02.25	Brasil de Pelotas - EC São José Porto Alegre	2:3 ✺
19.02.25	Avenida - Brasil de Pelotas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWTLT
- EC Avenida
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
09.03.25	Avenida - EC Pelotas	4:1 ✺
05.03.25	EC São José Porto Alegre - Avenida	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Avenida - EC São José Porto Alegre	3:2 ✺
23.02.25	EC Pelotas - Avenida	2:2 ✺
19.02.25	Avenida - Brasil de Pelotas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
19.02.25	Avenida - Brasil de Pelotas	1:1
15.02.25	Avenida - Brasil de Pelotas	1:1
Brazilian Serie D
10.07.24	Brasil de Pelotas - Avenida	4:0
23.06.24	Avenida - Brasil de Pelotas	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
24.01.24	Avenida - Brasil de Pelotas	0:0
24.02.23	Brasil de Pelotas - Avenida	1:1
04.02.19	Avenida - Brasil de Pelotas	2:1

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