Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie D - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 August 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio Bento Freitas (Pelotas)


	Brasil de Pelotas		Brasiliense

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.9	3.25
	2.15	2.9	3.4
	2.15	2.9	3.6	Watch
	2	3	3.4
	2.08	3.08	3.44
	2.15	2.9	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.5)	2.95 ↓ (3.1)	3.42 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brasil de Pelotas
42.9%

Draw
30.6%

Brasiliense
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

28.9%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

29.4%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brasil de Pelotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Brasil de Pelotas's performance.

Brasiliense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brasiliense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brasil de Pelotas than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brasil de Pelotas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brasiliense than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brasiliense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Brasil de Pelotas - Brasiliense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
25', 0 - 1, Xavier Fernandes J. V. ⚽,
45', 0 - 2, Gui Mendes ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
76', 0 - 3, Tobinha ⚽,
80', 1 - 3, Leo Santos ⚽,
90+6', 1 - 4, Pedra G. ⚽,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brasil de Pelotas
Brazilian Serie D
04.08.24	Brasil de Pelotas - Água Santa	3:0 ✺
27.07.24	Água Santa - Brasil de Pelotas	1:2 ✺
21.07.24	Brasil de Pelotas - Concórdia	2:1 ✺
14.07.24	Barra Santa Catarina - Brasil de Pelotas	2:2 ✺
10.07.24	Brasil de Pelotas - Avenida	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WWWTW
- Brasiliense FC
Brazilian Serie D
04.08.24	Brasiliense - Noroeste	2:2 ✺
27.07.24	Noroeste - Brasiliense	0:2 ✺
20.07.24	Anápolis - Brasiliense	0:2 ✺
14.07.24	Brasiliense - Clube Recreativo e Atlético Catalano	2:0 ✺
07.07.24	Brasiliense - Real Brasilia	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWWWW

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