Match Info

Serie D - Round 7

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Bento Freitas (Pelotas)


	Brasil de Pelotas		EC São José Porto Alegre

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.6	3.9
	1.97	2.68	4.85
	1.95	2.63	4.4
	1.91	2.75	4.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.87)	2.67 ↓ (3)	4.46 ↓ (4.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brasil de Pelotas
45.7%

Draw
34%

EC São José Porto Alegre
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

30.5%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

30.3%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brasil de Pelotas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

EC São José Porto Alegre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brasil de Pelotas than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC São José Porto Alegre than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Brasil de Pelotas - EC São José Porto Alegre Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Tony Lucas 🟥,
46', Lucas Grafite 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brasil de Pelotas won 0.

Recent form of Brasil de Pelotas has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

EC São José's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Brasil de Pelotas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Brasil de Pelotas is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Brasil de Pelotas won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:17. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Brasil de Pelotas won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brasil de Pelotas
Brazilian Copa FGF
13.05.26	Brasil de Pelotas - Guarany de Bagé	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
09.05.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Brasil de Pelotas	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Recopa Gaucho
06.05.26	Brasil de Pelotas - Internacional RS	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
02.05.26	Brasil de Pelotas - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Brasil de Pelotas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLLLT
- EC São José Porto Alegre
Brazilian Serie D
09.05.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Azuriz	1:0 ✺
03.05.26	Azuriz - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Brasil de Pelotas	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - EC São José Porto Alegre	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	São-Joseense - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
25.04.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Brasil de Pelotas	0:0
13.07.25	EC São José Porto Alegre - Brasil de Pelotas	1:0
03.05.25	Brasil de Pelotas - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:3
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
08.03.25	EC São José Porto Alegre - Brasil de Pelotas	2:1
22.02.25	Brasil de Pelotas - EC São José Porto Alegre	2:3
02.02.25	Brasil de Pelotas - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:0
18.02.24	Brasil de Pelotas - EC São José Porto Alegre	0:0

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