Match Info

Serie D - Round 8

Date: 8 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Bento Freitas (Pelotas)


	Brasil de Pelotas		Joinville

	1	X	2
	3.4	2.85	2.1
	3.5	2.72	2.2
	3.61	2.85	2.17	Watch
	3.48	2.91	2.14
	3.5	2.72	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↓ (4.36)	2.81 ↓ (2.89)	2.16 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brasil de Pelotas
25.9%

Draw
32.2%

Joinville
41.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.8%

31.4%

47.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.5%

30.9%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brasil de Pelotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Brasil de Pelotas's performance.

Joinville has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Joinville might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brasil de Pelotas than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brasil de Pelotas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Joinville than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Joinville could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Brasil de Pelotas - Joinville Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Alexiel ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

Brasil de Pelotas is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Joinville is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Joinville might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brasil de Pelotas won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 0.8:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Brasil de Pelotas won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brasil de Pelotas
Brazilian Serie D
01.06.25	Joinville - Brasil de Pelotas	1:0 ✺
25.05.25	Brasil de Pelotas - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:2 ✺
18.05.25	Brasil de Pelotas - Guarany de Bagé	0:0 ✺
10.05.25	São Luiz - Brasil de Pelotas	1:0 ✺
03.05.25	Brasil de Pelotas - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL
- Joinville
Brazilian Serie D
01.06.25	Joinville - Brasil de Pelotas	1:0 ✺
26.05.25	São Luiz - Joinville	0:1 ✺
17.05.25	Joinville - Barra Santa Catarina	2:1 ✺
10.05.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Joinville	1:0 ✺
03.05.25	Joinville - Azuriz	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
01.06.25	Joinville - Brasil de Pelotas	1:0
07.11.20	Joinville - Brasil de Pelotas	0:0
04.10.20	Brasil de Pelotas - Joinville	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
28.10.16	Joinville - Brasil de Pelotas	1:1
02.07.16	Brasil de Pelotas - Joinville	2:0

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