Match Info

Premier League - Round 11

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Brentford Community Stadium (London)

Referee: Attwell S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Brentford		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.4	2.5
	2.92	3.4	2.45
	2.96	3.5	2.58
	2.93	3.50	2.35	Watch
	2.86	3.47	2.55	Watch
	3	3.45	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↓ (2.93)	3.45 ↓ (3.5)	2.47 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brentford
33.1%

Draw
27.9%

Newcastle United
39%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

27.1%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

26.7%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brentford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brentford than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.7%	31.9%	40.4%

Brentford - Newcastle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Brentford will win (votes: 13 - 27.7%). Newcastle will win (votes: 19 - 40.4%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 31.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 26.4% – 54.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Brentford (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Brentford (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Brentford (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kelleher C. (G) 33. Kayode M. 22. Collins N. (C) 4. van den Berg S. 2. Hickey A. 18. Yarmolyuk Y. 6. Henderson J. 19. Ouattara Da. 24. Damsgaard M. 7. Schade K. 9. Thiago I.	1. Pope N. (G) 2. Trippier K. 12. Thiaw M. 4. Botman S. 33. Burn D. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 8. Tonali S. 7. Joelinton 23. Murphy J. 27. Woltemade N. 11. Barnes H.
Substitutes
14. Carvalho F. 3. Henry R. 27. Janelt V. 8. Jensen M. 23. Lewis-Potter K. 11. Nelson R. 15. Onyeka F. 5. Pinnock E. 12. Valdimarsson H. R. (G)	20. Elanga A. 3. Hall L. 17. Krafth E. 6. Lascelles J. 67. Miley L. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 5. Schar F. 28. Willock J.
Coaches
Andrews K.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', Joelinton ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
27', 0 - 1, Barnes H. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
49', Burn D. 🟨,
56', 1 - 1, Schade K. ⚽,
61', Ouattara Da. 🟨,
70', Hickey A. ↓, Henry R. ↑,
73', Burn D. 🟨,
77', Pope N. ↓, Ramsdale A. ↑,
77', Barnes H. ↓, Hall L. ↑,
77', Murphy J. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
77', Tonali S. ↓, Willock J. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Thiago I. (Pen),
84', Damsgaard M. ↓, Jensen M. ↑,
84', Yarmolyuk Y. ↓, Janelt V. ↑,
87', Kayode M. 🟨,
90+2', Ouattara Da. ↓, Nelson R. ↑,
90+5', 3 - 1, Thiago I. ⚽,
90+6', Bruno Guimaraes ↓, Miley L. ↑,
90+7', Trippier K. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 13 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brentford won 1.

Brentford has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Newcastle is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Brentford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Newcastle has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Brentford: Dasilva J. (Knee Injury) Milambo A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Newcastle: Gordon A. (Muscle Injury) Livramento V. (Knee Injury) Osula W. (Ankle Injury) Wissa Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Brentford: Arthur B. (Calf Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Brentford won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 16:29. (average 1.3:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Brentford won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Brentford - the odds 2.93 are the expected chance of winning is 32.43%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Newcastle United - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 40.43%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brentford FC
English Premier League
01.11.25	Crystal Palace - Brentford	2:0 ✺
English League Cup
28.10.25	Grimsby Town - Brentford	0:5 ✺
English Premier League
25.10.25	Brentford - Liverpool	3:2 ✺
20.10.25	West Ham United - Brentford	0:2 ✺
05.10.25	Brentford - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 LWWWL
- Newcastle United
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Newcastle United - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
02.11.25	West Ham United - Newcastle United	3:1 ✺
English League Cup
29.10.25	Newcastle United - Tottenham Hotspur	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
25.10.25	Newcastle United - Fulham	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Newcastle United - Benfica	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
02.04.25	Newcastle United - Brentford	2:1
English League Cup
18.12.24	Newcastle United - Brentford	3:1
English Premier League
07.12.24	Brentford - Newcastle United	4:2
19.05.24	Brentford - Newcastle United	2:4
16.09.23	Newcastle United - Brentford	1:0
08.04.23	Brentford - Newcastle United	1:2
08.10.22	Newcastle United - Brentford	5:1

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