Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 5 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Kruzliak I. (Svk)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	Tring Sport 6
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, beIN Sports MENA English 1, Q Arena Asia, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 6, Pickx+ Sports 6, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 4
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Europe	UEFA TV
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2, Viaplay 1 Urheilu
France	Canal+ Live 5
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	SÝN Sport 3
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Ireland	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4, ART Sport 4
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
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Mongolia	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 6
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Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	beIN Sports 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 4
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 3
South-america	ESPN 4 South, Space Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	Tabii Spor 3, Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360


	Newcastle United		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.75	9
	1.36	4.95	9.9
	1.35	5.2	9.8
	1.55	4.19	5.91	Watch
	1.39	5.18	9.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.55)	4.85 ↑ (4.19)	8.83 ↑ (5.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
69.1%

Draw
20%

Athletic Bilbao
11%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

22.7%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.6%

22.2%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newcastle United's performance.

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletic Bilbao might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newcastle United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.1%	6.8%	8.1%

Newcastle United - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Newcastle (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Newcastle United will win (62 of 73 users predict this - 84.93%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.72% – 93.14%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Newcastle United will win (29 of 34 users predict this - 85.29%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 35 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 30 - 85.7%). Athletic (votes: 2 - 5.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 8.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pope N. (G) 2. Trippier K. 12. Thiaw M. 4. Botman S. 33. Burn D. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 8. Tonali S. 7. Joelinton 11. Barnes H. 27. Woltemade N. 10. Gordon A.	1. Simon U. (C) 12. Areso J. 3. Vivian D. 4. Paredes A. 19. Boiro A. 18. Jauregizar M. 30. Rego A. 7. Berenguer A. 6. Vesga M. 23. Navarro R. 20. Gomez U.
Substitutes
20. Elanga A. 3. Hall L. 17. Krafth E. 67. Miley L. 37. Murphy A. 23. Murphy J. 18. Osula W. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 5. Schar F. 31. Thompson M. (G) 28. Willock J.	2. Gorosabel A. 31. Hierro A. 38. Izagirre Cestona A. 14. Laporte A. 15. Lekue I. 27. Padilla A. (G) 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 35. Sanchez I. 44. Sanchez S. 26. Santos M. (G) 22. Serrano N.
Coaches
Howe E.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Burn D. ⚽, Trippier K. (A),
41', Gordon A. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', 2 - 0, Joelinton ⚽, Barnes H. (A),
57', Paredes A. 🟨,
65', Burn D. ↓, Hall L. ↑,
65', Bruno Guimaraes ↓, Miley L. ↑,
65', Barnes H. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
69', Areso J. 🟨,
69', Navarro R. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
70', Jauregizar M. ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
78', Gomez U. ↓, Hierro A. ↑,
78', Areso J. ↓, Gorosabel A. ↑,
81', Rego A. ↓, Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↑,
83', Woltemade N. ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Newcastle is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Newcastle: Ashby H. (Thigh Injury) Gillespie M. (Inactive) Lascelles J. (Inactive) Livramento V. (Knee Injury) Ruddy J. (Inactive) Wissa Y. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Berchiche Y. (Muscle Injury) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Izeta (Inactive) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sancet O. (Muscle Injury) Sannadi M. (Knee Injury) Williams I. (Groin Injury) Williams N. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Bruno Guimaraes (Illness)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Newcastle won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Including home match between the teams, Newcastle won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
02.11.25	West Ham United - Newcastle United	3:1 ✺
English League Cup
29.10.25	Newcastle United - Tottenham Hotspur	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
25.10.25	Newcastle United - Fulham	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Newcastle United - Benfica	3:0 ✺
English Premier League
18.10.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWWWL
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
01.11.25	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	3:2 ✺
25.10.25	Athletic Bilbao - Getafe	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.10.25	Athletic Bilbao - Qarabağ Agdam	3:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
19.10.25	Elche - Athletic Bilbao	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
30.07.22	Newcastle United - Athletic Bilbao	2:1

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