Match Info

EFL Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: England D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Newcastle United		Fulham

	1	X	2
	1.68	4.1	4.2	Watch
	1.68	4.15	4.7
	1.75	4.15	4.59
	1.73	4.22	4.62	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4.2
	1.78	4.22	4.32	Watch
	1.73	4	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.71)	4.09 ↑ (3.92)	4.45 ↓ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
55.3%

Draw
23.3%

Fulham
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

24.2%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

23.3%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Fulham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fulham than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	11.8%	5.9%

Newcastle United - Fulham Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.75 - Newcastle (1.89) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +1 - Fulham (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Newcastle United will win (42 of 50 users predict this - 84%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.84% – 94.16%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Newcastle United will win (23 of 25 users predict this - 92%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 24 - 85.7%). Fulham (votes: 2 - 7.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Ramsdale A. (G) 67. Miley L. 12. Thiaw M. 5. Schar F. 21. Livramento V. 28. Willock J. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 41. Ramsey J. 23. Murphy J. 9. Wissa Y. 11. Barnes H.	23. Lecomte B. (G) 2. Tete K. 5. Andersen J. (C) 15. Cuenca J. 33. Robinson A. 16. Berge S. 20. Lukic S. 8. Wilson H. 32. Smith Rowe E. 22. Kevin 7. Jimenez R.
Substitutes
20. Elanga A. 10. Gordon A. 7. Joelinton 37. Murphy A. 62. Neave S. 26. Ruddy J. (G) 61. Shahar L. 8. Tonali S. 27. Woltemade N.	10. Cairney T. 21. Castagne T. 31. Diop I. 24. King J. 18. Kusi Asare J. 1. Leno B. (G) 6. Reed H. 99. Ridgeon S. 11. Traore A.
Coaches
Howe E.	Silva M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Wissa Y. ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Lukic S. ⚽, Robinson A. (A),
23', Schar F. 🟨,
29', Lukic S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lukic S. ↓, Reed H. ↑,
72', Willock J. ↓, Tonali S. ↑,
72', Wissa Y. ↓, Woltemade N. ↑,
74', Smith Rowe E. ↓, King J. ↑,
74', Kevin ↓, Traore A. ↑,
76', Livramento V. ↓, Murphy A. ↑,
82', Woltemade N. 🟨,
85', Barnes H. ↓, Gordon A. ↑,
85', Murphy J. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 1, Miley L. ⚽, Tonali S. (A),
90+3', Berge S. ↓, Kusi Asare J. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Fulham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Newcastle is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Newcastle: Botman S. (Lower Back Injury) Burn D. (Chest Injury) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Osula W. (Ankle Injury) Trippier K. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Fulham: Bassey C. (International duty) Chukwueze S. (International duty) Iwobi A. (International duty) Rodrigo Muniz (Hamstring Injury) Sessegnon R. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Pope N. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:15. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
14.12.25	Sunderland - Newcastle United	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Newcastle United	2:2 ✺
English Premier League
06.12.25	Newcastle United - Burnley	2:1 ✺
02.12.25	Newcastle United - Tottenham Hotspur	2:2 ✺
29.11.25	Everton - Newcastle United	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTWTW
- Fulham FC
English Premier League
13.12.25	Burnley - Fulham	2:3 ✺
07.12.25	Fulham - Crystal Palace	1:2 ✺
02.12.25	Fulham - Manchester City	4:5 ✺
29.11.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Fulham	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Fulham - Sunderland	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
25.10.25	Newcastle United - Fulham	2:1
01.02.25	Newcastle United - Fulham	1:2
21.09.24	Fulham - Newcastle United	3:1
06.04.24	Fulham - Newcastle United	0:1
English FA Cup
27.01.24	Fulham - Newcastle United	0:2
English Premier League
16.12.23	Newcastle United - Fulham	3:0
15.01.23	Newcastle United - Fulham	1:0

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