Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Newcastle United		Benfica

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	5.25
	1.65	4.05	5.35
	1.67	4.15	5.63
	1.26	4.81	16.94	Watch
	1.66	4.13	5.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.65)	4.23 ↑ (4.2)	7.72 ↑ (4.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
63.5%

Draw
23.6%

Benfica
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

22.8%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

21.9%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newcastle United's performance.

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Benfica might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Benfica could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.2%	15.3%	5.6%

Newcastle United - Benfica Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Benfica (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Benfica (4.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Newcastle (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Newcastle United will win (55 of 70 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.96% – 88.18%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 13 - 65%). Benfica (votes: 5 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pope N. (G) 2. Trippier K. 12. Thiaw M. 4. Botman S. 33. Burn D. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 67. Miley L. 41. Ramsey J. 23. Murphy J. 27. Woltemade N. 10. Gordon A.	1. Trubin A. (G) 44. Araujo T. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 4. Silva A. 17. Dedic A. 20. Rios R. 5. Barrenechea E. 8. Aursnes F. 11. Lukebakio D. 14. Pavlidis V. 10. Sudakov G.
Substitutes
11. Barnes H. 20. Elanga A. 7. Joelinton 17. Krafth E. 37. Murphy A. 18. Osula W. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 5. Schar F. 31. Thompson M. (G) 8. Tonali S. 28. Willock J.	39. Araujo H. 18. Barreiro L. 26. Dahl S. 9. Ivanovic F. 90. Lima I. 3. Obrador R. 86. Prioste D. 84. Rego J. 21. Schjelderup A. 24. Soares S. (G) 68. Veloso J. 66. Wynder J.
Coaches
Howe E.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Thiaw M. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Gordon A. ⚽, Murphy J. (A),
45', Lukebakio D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
63', Murphy J. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
63', Ramsey J. ↓, Joelinton ↑,
63', Dedic A. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Barnes H. ⚽, Pope N. (A),
83', 3 - 0, Barnes H. ⚽, Gordon A. (A),
85', Woltemade N. ↓, Osula W. ↑,
85', Gordon A. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
90', Bruno Guimaraes ↓, Willock J. ↑,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Benfica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Newcastle is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Newcastle: Ashby H. (Inactive) Gillespie M. (Inactive) Hall L. (Thigh Injury) Lascelles J. (Inactive) Livramento V. (Knee Injury) Ruddy J. (Inactive) Wissa Y. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Manu (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Tonali S. (Illness)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1.3:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Newcastle won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
18.10.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Newcastle United - Nottingham Forest	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Saint-Gilloise - Newcastle United	0:4 ✺
English Premier League
28.09.25	Newcastle United - Arsenal	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
24.09.25	Newcastle United - Bradford City	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWWLW
- SL Benfica
Taça de Portugal
17.10.25	Chaves - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Porto - Benfica	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Chelsea - Benfica	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.09.25	Benfica - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
23.09.25	Benfica - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
26.07.22	Benfica - Newcastle United	3:2
UEFA Europa League
11.04.13	Newcastle United - Benfica	1:1
04.04.13	Benfica - Newcastle United	3:1

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