Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 7, Supersport Action, SuperSport MaXimo 2
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 6
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	06:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	DAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 6
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	16:00	HBO Max
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 1
Canada	15:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	16:00	Disney+
China	03:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	14:00	Disney+
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 3
Germany	21:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 5, Nova Sports 4
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	19:00	SÝN Sport 3
India	00:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	13:00	Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 5
New Zealand	08:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport Action, Supersport Maximo 2
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	00:00	Tapmad
Peru	14:00	Disney+, Fox Sports 2
Philippines	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV5
Romania	22:00	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 5, Arena Sport 1
Singapore	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport Action
South America	—	ESPN 7 Latin America, ESPN7 South, ViX Latin America
South Korea	04:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 7
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
Thailand	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	22:00	Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, TNT Sports 2, Virgin Media More
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	02:00	ON Plus


	Newcastle United		Benfica

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	5.25
	1.65	4.05	5.35
	1.67	4.15	5.63
	1.26	4.81	16.94	Watch
	1.66	4.13	5.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.65)	4.23 ↑ (4.2)	7.72 ↑ (4.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
63.5%

Draw
23.6%

Benfica
12.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.1%

22.8%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

21.9%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newcastle United's performance.

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Benfica might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Benfica could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.2%	15.3%	5.6%

Newcastle United - Benfica Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Benfica (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Benfica (4.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Newcastle (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Newcastle United will win (55 of 70 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.96% – 88.18%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 13 - 65%). Benfica (votes: 5 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pope N. (G) 2. Trippier K. 12. Thiaw M. 4. Botman S. 33. Burn D. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 67. Miley L. 41. Ramsey J. 23. Murphy J. 27. Woltemade N. 10. Gordon A.	1. Trubin A. (G) 44. Araujo T. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 4. Silva A. 17. Dedic A. 20. Rios R. 5. Barrenechea E. 8. Aursnes F. 11. Lukebakio D. 14. Pavlidis V. 10. Sudakov G.
Substitutes
11. Barnes H. 20. Elanga A. 7. Joelinton 17. Krafth E. 37. Murphy A. 18. Osula W. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 5. Schar F. 31. Thompson M. (G) 8. Tonali S. 28. Willock J.	39. Araujo H. 18. Barreiro L. 26. Dahl S. 9. Ivanovic F. 90. Lima I. 3. Obrador R. 86. Prioste D. 84. Rego J. 21. Schjelderup A. 24. Soares S. (G) 68. Veloso J. 66. Wynder J.
Coaches
Howe E.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Thiaw M. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Gordon A. ⚽, Murphy J. (A),
45', Lukebakio D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
63', Murphy J. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
63', Ramsey J. ↓, Joelinton ↑,
63', Dedic A. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Barnes H. ⚽, Pope N. (A),
83', 3 - 0, Barnes H. ⚽, Gordon A. (A),
85', Woltemade N. ↓, Osula W. ↑,
85', Gordon A. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
90', Bruno Guimaraes ↓, Willock J. ↑,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Benfica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Newcastle is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Newcastle: Ashby H. (Inactive) Gillespie M. (Inactive) Hall L. (Thigh Injury) Lascelles J. (Inactive) Livramento V. (Knee Injury) Ruddy J. (Inactive) Wissa Y. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Manu (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Tonali S. (Illness)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1.3:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Newcastle won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
18.10.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Newcastle United - Nottingham Forest	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Saint-Gilloise - Newcastle United	0:4 ✺
English Premier League
28.09.25	Newcastle United - Arsenal	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
24.09.25	Newcastle United - Bradford City	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWWLW
- SL Benfica
Taça de Portugal
17.10.25	Chaves - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Porto - Benfica	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Chelsea - Benfica	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.09.25	Benfica - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
23.09.25	Benfica - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
26.07.22	Benfica - Newcastle United	3:2
UEFA Europa League
11.04.13	Newcastle United - Benfica	1:1
04.04.13	Benfica - Newcastle United	3:1

Upcoming Matches