Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 15

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Francis-Le Blé (Brest)

Referee: Leonard T. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Mexico	Caliente TV, FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 5 Norte
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Brest		Monaco

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.9	2	Watch
	3.35	3.7	2.08
	3.55	3.9	2.04
	3.31	3.9	2.02	Watch
	3.25	3.6	2.05
	3.52	3.98	2.08	Watch
	3.5	3.8	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↑ (3)	3.83 ↑ (3.72)	2.04 ↓ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brest
28.1%

Draw
25%

Monaco
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

25.4%

43.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

25.5%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Monaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brest than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	6%	84%

Brest - Monaco Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Brest (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Brest (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Monaco will win (40 of 47 users predict this - 85.11%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.93% – 95.29%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Monaco will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Brest (votes: 2 - 11.8%). Monaco (votes: 14 - 82.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Coudert G. (G) 77. Lala K. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 44. Coulibaly S. 27. Guindo D. 13. Chotard J. 8. Magnetti H. 10. Del Castillo R. 23. Doumbia K. 14. Labeau Lascary R. 19. Ajorque L.	1. Hradecky L. (G) 2. Vanderson 4. Teze J. 22. Salisu M. 12. Caio Henrique 28. Coulibaly M. 15. Camara L. 11. Akliouche M. (C) 18. Minamino T. 10. Golovin A. 14. Biereth M.
Substitutes
17. Balde M. 4. Diaz Jr. M. 7. Dina Ebimbe J. 50. Jauny N. (G) 25. Le Cardinal J. 2. Locko B. 33. Makalou H. 99. Mboup P. 24. Tousart L.	23. Bamba A. 29. Brunner P. 41. Cabral P. 27. Diatta K. 17. Idumbo S. 16. Kohn P. (G) 21. Michal L. 20. Ouattara K. 8. Pogba P.
Coaches
Roy E.	Pocognoli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Minamino T. 🟨,
27', Caio Henrique 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Doumbia K. ⚽,
32', Labeau Lascary R. ↓, Balde M. ↑,
44', Doumbia K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Vanderson 🟨,
60', Ajorque L. 🟥,
69', Golovin A. ↓, Idumbo S. ↑,
69', Coulibaly M. ↓, Pogba P. ↑,
69', Doumbia K. ↓, Mboup P. ↑,
77', Minamino T. ↓, Brunner P. ↑,
77', Camara L. ↓, Michal L. ↑,
78', Mboup P. 🟨,
83', Chotard J. ↓, Tousart L. ↑,
83', Del Castillo R. ↓, Dina Ebimbe J. ↑,
83', Vanderson ↓, Diatta K. ↑,
90+4', Teze J. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brest won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Monaco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Monaco is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Brest: Majecki R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Monaco: Balogun F. (Groin Injury) Dier E. (Calf Injury) Fati A. (Muscle Injury) Kehrer T. (Red Card) Mawissa C. (Hamstring Injury) Zakaria D. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Brest: Bourgault J. (Injury) Zogbe L. (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Brest won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:21. (average 0.9:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Brest won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
30.11.25	Strasbourg - Brest	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Brest - Metz	3:2 ✺
08.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Brest	3:0 ✺
02.11.25	Brest - Lyon	0:0 ✺
29.10.25	Le Havre - Brest	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWLTL
- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
29.11.25	Monaco - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Paphos - Monaco	2:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
22.11.25	Rennes - Monaco	4:1 ✺
08.11.25	Monaco - Lens	1:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.11.25	Bodø Glimt - Monaco	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
05.04.25	Brest - Monaco	2:1
22.11.24	Monaco - Brest	3:2
21.04.24	Brest - Monaco	0:2
05.11.23	Monaco - Brest	2:0
19.02.23	Brest - Monaco	1:2
01.01.23	Monaco - Brest	1:0
14.05.22	Monaco - Brest	4:2

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