Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 11

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Francis-Le Blé (Brest)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3, Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV6
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Brest		Lyon

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.4	2.2	Watch
	3.45	3.25	2.18
	2.99	3.61	2.24	Watch
	3.7	3.48	2.12	Watch
	3.05	3.4	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 (3.3)	3.43 ↓ (3.65)	2.2 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brest
28.9%

Draw
27.8%

Lyon
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.6%

25.8%

45.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

25.1%

46.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brest than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.6%	18.6%	62.8%

Brest - Lyon Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Brest will win (votes: 8 - 18.6%). Lyon will win (votes: 27 - 62.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 18.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lyon: 48.4% – 77.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Lyon (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Brest (1.92) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Brest (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Brest (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Lyon (votes: 8 - 47.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Majecki R. (G) 77. Lala K. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 44. Coulibaly S. 2. Locko B. 13. Chotard J. 24. Tousart L. 17. Balde M. 10. Del Castillo R. 99. Mboup P. 19. Ajorque L.	1. Greif D. (G) 33. Hateboer H. 22. Clinton Mata 19. Niakhate M. 3. Tagliafico N. 23. Morton T. 6. Tessmann T. 10. Sulc P. 8. Tolisso C. (C) 17. Moreira A. 20. Satriano M.
Substitutes
30. Coudert G. (G) 4. Diaz Jr. M. 7. Dina Ebimbe J. 27. Guindo D. 14. Labeau Lascary R. 26. Le Cardinal J. 8. Magnetti H. 33. Makalou H. 12. Zogbe L.	35. Da Silva M. (G) 39. de Carvalho M. 40. Descamps R. (G) 18. Ghezzal R. 7. Karabec A. 21. Kluivert R. 98. Maitland-Niles A. 44. Merah K. 29. Molebe E.
Coaches
Roy E.	Maciel J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Hateboer H. 🟥,
15', Tessmann T. ↓, Maitland-Niles A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Mboup P. 🟨,
71', Tousart L. ↓, Magnetti H. ↑,
72', Balde M. ↓, Labeau Lascary R. ↑,
76', Satriano M. ↓, Ghezzal R. ↑,
82', Mboup P. ↓, Dina Ebimbe J. ↑,
84', Tolisso C. ↓, de Carvalho M. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brest won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Brest may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Lyon might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Brest: Doumbia K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lyon: Abner Vinicius (Red Card) Fofana M. (Ankle Injury) Mangala O. (Knee Injury) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Brest: Labeau Lascary R. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Brest won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:26. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Brest won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
29.10.25	Le Havre - Brest	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Brest - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3 ✺
19.10.25	Lorient - Brest	3:3 ✺
04.10.25	Brest - Nantes	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Angers - Brest	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTTW
- Olympique Lyon
French Ligue 1
29.10.25	Paris FC - Lyon	3:3 ✺
26.10.25	Lyon - Strasbourg	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Lyon - Basel	2:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
18.10.25	Nice - Lyon	3:2 ✺
05.10.25	Lyon - Toulouse	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
02.03.25	Lyon - Brest	2:1
11.01.25	Brest - Lyon	2:1
14.04.24	Lyon - Brest	4:3
23.09.23	Brest - Lyon	1:0
01.02.23	Lyon - Brest	0:0
28.12.22	Brest - Lyon	2:4
20.04.22	Brest - Lyon	2:1

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