Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 13

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Francis-Le Blé (Brest)

Referee: Angoula G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Caze TV
Canada	beIN Connect
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Caliente TV, FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Russia	Okko Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab


	Brest		Metz

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.75	4	Watch
	1.85	3.7	4.15
	1.81	3.87	4.4
	1.77	3.81	4.36	Watch
	1.9	3.85	4.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.78)	3.8 ↑ (3.74)	4.2 ↓ (4.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brest
52.1%

Draw
25.2%

Metz
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

25.3%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

28.8%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Metz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brest than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brest, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metz than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	17.9%	10.7%

Brest - Metz Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Brest will win (votes: 20 - 71.4%). Metz will win (votes: 3 - 10.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 17.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brest: 54.7% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Brest (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Metz (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Metz (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Metz (4.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Brest (votes: 4 - 50%). Metz (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Coudert G. (G) 77. Lala K. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 44. Coulibaly S. 27. Guindo D. 13. Chotard J. 8. Magnetti H. 10. Del Castillo R. 23. Doumbia K. 99. Mboup P. 19. Ajorque L.	1. Fischer J. (G) 39. Kouao K. 5. Gbamin J. 15. Yegbe T. 2. Colin M. 12. Toure A. 20. Deminguet J. 14. Sabaly C. 10. Hein G. (C) 7. Tsitaishvili G. 99. Asoro J.
Substitutes
17. Balde M. 18. Bourgault J. 4. Diaz Jr. M. 7. Dina Ebimbe J. 50. Jauny N. (G) 14. Labeau Lascary R. 26. Le Cardinal J. 33. Makalou H. 24. Tousart L.	9. Abuashvili G. 97. Ballo-Toure F. 40. Ba O. (G) 19. Bokele Mputu M. 11. Mbaye M. 23. Sane I. 38. Sane S. 21. Stambouli B. 8. Traore B.
Coaches
Roy E.	Le Mignan S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Mboup P. ⚽, Chardonnet B. (A),
6', 1 - 1, Tsitaishvili G. ⚽, Yegbe T. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', 2 - 1, Doumbia K. ⚽, Ajorque L. (A),
56', Doumbia K. 🟨,
67', Doumbia K. ↓, Labeau Lascary R. ↑,
68', Kouao K. ↓, Ballo-Toure F. ↑,
68', Deminguet J. ↓, Traore B. ↑,
68', Tsitaishvili G. ↓, Bokele Mputu M. ↑,
78', Magnetti H. ↓, Tousart L. ↑,
78', Mboup P. ↓, Balde M. ↑,
78', Asoro J. ↓, Sane I. ↑,
79', 2 - 2, Coulibaly S. (Own goal),
83', Ballo-Toure F. 🟨,
84', Sabaly C. 🟨,
87', Coulibaly S. 🟨,
90+5', Del Castillo R. (Pen),
90+8', Toure A. 🟨,
90+10', 3 - 2, Del Castillo R. (Pen),

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 15 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brest won 3.

Brest has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Metz's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Brest may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Brest is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Brest: Locko B. (Thigh Injury) Majecki R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Metz: Diallo H. (Hamstring Injury) Mangondo J. (Knee Injury) Mbaye M. (Foot Injury) Mboula U. (Hamstring Injury) Sy P. (Concussion)

There are questionable in Metz: Madjo B. (Inactive)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Brest won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:19. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Brest won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:14. (average 1.4:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
08.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Brest	3:0 ✺
02.11.25	Brest - Lyon	0:0 ✺
29.10.25	Le Havre - Brest	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Brest - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3 ✺
19.10.25	Lorient - Brest	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTLLT
- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
09.11.25	Metz - Nice	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Nantes - Metz	0:2 ✺
29.10.25	Metz - Lens	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Lille - Metz	6:1 ✺
19.10.25	Toulouse - Metz	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.9 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
07.04.24	Brest - Metz	4:3
10.12.23	Metz - Brest	0:1
24.04.22	Metz - Brest	0:1
26.09.21	Brest - Metz	1:2
31.01.21	Brest - Metz	2:4
29.11.20	Metz - Brest	0:2
French Coupe de la Ligue
30.10.19	Metz - Brest	1:2 penalties

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