Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Stade Louis II (Monaco)

Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Monaco		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.75	1.44
	5	4.4	1.58
	6.9	5.15	1.43
	6.8	5.2	1.45
	6.45	5.31	1.43	Watch
	6	4.5	1.44
	6.81	5.12	1.49
	6.33	4.75	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.35 ↑ (5.55)	4.9 ↑ (4.56)	1.47 ↓ (1.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monaco
15.1%

Draw
19.6%

Paris Saint-Germain
65.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.3%

21.1%

61.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.8%

20.4%

63.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monaco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.8%	10.7%	84.5%

Monaco - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - PSG (1.61) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Monaco (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Paris Saint-Germain will win (71 of 82 users predict this - 86.59%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.21% – 93.97%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paris Saint-Germain will win (23 of 24 users predict this - 95.83%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Monaco (votes: 2 - 7.4%). PSG (votes: 25 - 92.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Kohn P. (G) 2. Vanderson 4. Teze J. 25. Faes W. 12. Caio Henrique 15. Camara L. 6. Zakaria D. (C) 11. Akliouche M. 10. Golovin A. 24. Adingra S. 9. Balogun F.	39. Safonov M. (G) 2. Hakimi A. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 33. Zaire-Emery W. 17. Vitinha 87. Neves J. 7. Kvaratskhelia K. 10. Dembele O. 29. Barcola B.
Substitutes
23. Bamba A. 14. Biereth M. 28. Coulibaly M. 27. Diatta K. 17. Idumbo S. 50. Lienard Y. (G) 44. Nibombe S. 40. Stawiecki J. (G) 41. Toure I.	4. Beraldo L. 30. Chevalier L. (G) 14. Doue D. 27. Fernandez D. 21. Hernandez L. 19. Lee Kang-In 89. Marin R. (G) 49. Mbaye I. 9. Ramos G. 6. Zabarnyi I.
Coaches
Pocognoli S.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
1', 1 - 0, Balogun F. ⚽, Golovin A. (A),
18', 2 - 0, Balogun F. ⚽, Akliouche M. (A),
21', Faes W. 🟨,
22', Vitinha (Penalty Awarded),
27', Dembele O. ↓, Doue D. ↑,
29', 2 - 1, Doue D. ⚽, Barcola B. (A),
29', Zakaria D. 🟨,
41', 2 - 2, Hakimi A. ⚽, Doue D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Golovin A. 🟥,
58', Akliouche M. ↓, Diatta K. ↑,
67', 2 - 3, Doue D. ⚽, Zaire-Emery W. (A),
69', Kvaratskhelia K. ↓, Lee Kang-In ↑,
70', Vanderson ↓, Bamba A. ↑,
70', Adingra S. ↓, Coulibaly M. ↑,
81', Barcola B. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
83', Balogun F. ↓, Biereth M. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monaco won 1.

Monaco has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

PSG is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

PSG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, PSG is the team to beat.

There will not play in Monaco: Brunner P. (Inactive) Cabral P. (Muscle Injury) Dier E. (Injury) Hradecky L. (Knee Injury) Mawissa C. (Injury) Minamino T. (Knee Injury) Ouattara K. (Calf Injury) Pogba P. (Calf Injury) Salisu M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in PSG: Mayulu S. (Calf Injury) Ndjantou Q. (Muscle Injury) Ruiz F. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Monaco: Fati A. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Monaco won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 24:50. (average 1.2:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Monaco won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1.4:1.9).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

PSG: 11.52%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	PSG	1	1	0	0	6:1	5	3

Last Results with these Odds

Paris Saint-Germain - the odds 1.56 are the expected chance of winning is 61.61%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
13.02.26	Monaco - Nantes	3:1 ✺
08.02.26	Nice - Monaco	0:0 ✺
Coupe De France
05.02.26	Strasbourg - Monaco	3:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
31.01.26	Monaco - Rennes	4:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Monaco - Juventus	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTLWT
- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
13.02.26	Rennes - Paris Saint-Germain	3:1 ✺
08.02.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	5:0 ✺
01.02.26	Strasbourg - Paris Saint-Germain	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Newcastle United	1:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
23.01.26	Auxerre - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
29.11.25	Monaco - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0
07.02.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	4:1
French Super Cup
05.01.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	1:0
French Ligue 1
18.12.24	Monaco - Paris Saint-Germain	2:4
01.03.24	Monaco - Paris Saint-Germain	0:0
24.11.23	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	5:2
11.02.23	Monaco - Paris Saint-Germain	3:1

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