Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 12

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Delajod W. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Olympique Marseille		Brest

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.75	6.5	Watch
	1.44	4.7	6.9
	1.46	4.83	6.92
	1.40	4.95	7.04	Watch
	1.53	4.73	6.76	Watch
	1.46	4.82	6.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.41)	4.8 ↓ (4.91)	6.84 ↓ (7.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
65.9%

Draw
20%

Brest
14%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.3%

19.3%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.7%

18.4%

12.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brest than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.8%	3.4%	13.8%

Olympique Marseille - Brest Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Marseille (2.01) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - draw (2.72) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Olympique Marseille will win (24 of 29 users predict this - 82.76%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.01% – 96.51%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Olympique Marseille will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Brest (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rulli G. (G) 28. Pavard B. 21. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson 62. Murillo M. 18. Vermeeren A. 23. Hojbjerg P. (C) 8. Gomes A. 10. Greenwood M. 14. Paixao I. 97. Aubameyang P.	1. Majecki R. (G) 77. Lala K. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 44. Coulibaly S. 2. Locko B. 13. Chotard J. 8. Magnetti H. 17. Balde M. 10. Del Castillo R. 99. Mboup P. 19. Ajorque L.
Substitutes
50. Bakola D. 12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 19. Kondogbia G. 7. Maupay N. 76. Mmadi T. 17. O'Riley M. 34. Vaz R. 22. Weah T.	30. Coudert G. (G) 4. Diaz Jr. M. 7. Dina Ebimbe J. 27. Guindo D. 14. Labeau Lascary R. 26. Le Cardinal J. 33. Makalou H. 24. Tousart L. 12. Zogbe L.
Coaches
De Zerbi R.	Roy E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Gomes A. ⚽,
33', 2 - 0, Greenwood M. (Pen),
33', Locko B. ↓, Guindo D. ↑,
37', Mboup P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Balde M. ↓, Labeau Lascary R. ↑,
46', Mboup P. ↓, Tousart L. ↑,
70', Gomes A. ↓, O'Riley M. ↑,
74', Magnetti H. ↓, Makalou H. ↑,
79', Aguerd N. ↓, Egan-Riley C. ↑,
79', Greenwood M. ↓, Vaz R. ↑,
82', 3 - 0, Aubameyang P. ⚽, O'Riley M. (A),
83', Chotard J. ↓, Dina Ebimbe J. ↑,
86', Aubameyang P. ↓, Mmadi T. ↑,
87', Hojbjerg P. ↓, Bakola D. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 3.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Brest may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Marseille is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Marseille: Balerdi L. (Muscle Injury) Garcia U. (Red Card) Gouiri A. (Shoulder Injury) Medina F. (Ankle Injury) Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Marseille: Kondogbia G. (Calf Injury) Nadir B. (Head Injury) Weah T. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Brest: Doumbia K. (Knee Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 29:15. (average 2.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Atalanta	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
01.11.25	Auxerre - Olympique Marseille	0:1 ✺
29.10.25	Olympique Marseille - Angers	2:2 ✺
25.10.25	Lens - Olympique Marseille	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Olympique Marseille	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LWTLL
- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
02.11.25	Brest - Lyon	0:0 ✺
29.10.25	Le Havre - Brest	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Brest - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3 ✺
19.10.25	Lorient - Brest	3:3 ✺
04.10.25	Brest - Nantes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLLTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
27.04.25	Olympique Marseille - Brest	4:1
17.08.24	Brest - Olympique Marseille	1:5
18.02.24	Brest - Olympique Marseille	1:0
26.08.23	Olympique Marseille - Brest	2:0
27.05.23	Olympique Marseille - Brest	1:2
14.08.22	Brest - Olympique Marseille	1:1
13.03.22	Brest - Olympique Marseille	1:4

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