Match Info

Primera B - Round 17

Date: 22 May 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla (Adrogue)


	Brown de Adrogué		Deportivo Merlo

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.6	2.87
	2.62	2.68	2.82	Watch
	2.64	2.82	2.99
	2.79	2.5	3	Watch
	2.7	2.6	2.8
	2.65	2.72	2.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (2.84)	2.65 ↓ (2.81)	2.87 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brown de Adrogué
34.2%

Draw
34.2%

Deportivo Merlo
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

32.5%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

32.2%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brown de Adrogué has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Deportivo Merlo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brown de Adrogué than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Merlo than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Brown de Adrogué - Deportivo Merlo Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Deportivo Merlo will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Giovini S. (G) 4. Pieres M. 2. Aguirre C. 6. Cardozo D. 3. Ortiz A. 7. Bogado J. 5. Robles E. 8. Patrizio T. 10. Sproat M. 9. Baez B. 11. Meaurio N.	1. Figueroa T. (G) 4. Vallejo L. 2. Figueredo L. 13. Sineiro C. 3. Velasco A. 8. Aguerre F. 5. Ojeda G. 10. Sandoval I. 11. Maguicha D. 7. Da Rosa J. E. 9. Aguirre D. E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Figueredo L. 🟨,
42', Pieres M. ↓, Visco A. ↑,
45', Sandoval I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Bogado J. 🟨,
60', Da Rosa J. E. ↓, Hernandez R. ↑,
68', Baez B. ↓, Galeano V. ↑,
78', 0 - 1, Hernandez R. ⚽,
81', Ortiz A. ↓, Guerrero B. ↑,
82', Bogado J. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
82', Sproat M. ↓, Luraschi G. ↑,
82', Maguicha D. ↓, Barrientos L. ↑,
86', Luraschi G. 🟨,
88', Meaurio N. 🟨,
89', Benitez F. ↓, Ibarra L. ↑,
90', Vallejo L. 🟨,
90+6', Hernandez R. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Brown de Adrogué has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Deportivo Merlo is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brown de Adrogué won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:2. (average 2.2:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Brown de Adrogué won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 2.3:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Dep. Merlo	38	10	14	14	36:51	-15	44
19	Brown Adrogue	38	8	15	15	24:37	-13	39

Last Results with these Odds

Brown de Adrogué - the odds 2.84 are the expected chance of winning is 32.18%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Deportivo Merlo - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 35.29%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brown de Adrogué
Argentinian Primera B
16.05.26	Deportivo Camioneros - Brown de Adrogué	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Brown de Adrogué - Sportivo Italiano	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	San Martín de Burzaco - Brown de Adrogué	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Brown de Adrogué - Villa San Carlos	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Liniers - Brown de Adrogué	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LTTWL
- Deportivo Merlo
Argentinian Primera B
16.05.26	Deportivo Merlo - Deportivo Armenio	3:2 ✺
09.05.26	Deportivo Flandria - Deportivo Merlo	2:0 ✺
02.05.26	Deportivo Merlo - Argentino de Quilmes	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Defensores Unidos - Deportivo Merlo	1:1 ✺
21.04.26	Deportivo Merlo - Comunicaciones	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
23.08.25	Brown de Adrogué - Deportivo Merlo	1:0
05.04.25	Deportivo Merlo - Brown de Adrogué	0:1
29.08.15	Brown de Adrogué - Deportivo Merlo	3:0
10.04.15	Deportivo Merlo - Brown de Adrogué	1:3
01.10.14	Brown de Adrogué - Deportivo Merlo	3:1

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