Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 15

Date: 4 August 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Augusto Bauer (Brusque)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Brusque		Itabaiana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.9	2.85	4.1
	1.78	3.1	4.35	Watch
	1.9	3.2	4.38
	1.93	3.13	4.21	Watch
	1.91	2.75	4.4
	1.86	3.35	4.32	Watch
	1.69	3.2	5.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↑ (1.69)	3.08 ↓ (3.2)	4.42 ↓ (5.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brusque
49.5%

Draw
29.8%

Itabaiana
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

28.5%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

26.3%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brusque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	22.2%	22.2%

Brusque - Itabaiana Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Brusque will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Itabaiana will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brusque: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Brusque will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 16. Alex Paulino 66. Alex Ruan 7. Biel Fonseca 27. Diego Mathias 2. Everton Alemao 23. Guilherme Pira 30. Jean Mangabeira 97. Mateus Pivo 9. Olavio 4. Torres J. (C)	1. Leo Souza (G) 4. Betao 8. Carlos Coppetti 3. Fredson 5. Gustavo Crecci 2. Gustavo Fagundes (C) 9. Jackson 10. Karl 7. Leilson 11. Robinho 6. Tarcisio
Substitutes
75. Adrianinho 22. Andre Luiz (G) 50. Bernardo 17. Clinton U. 19. Joao Veras 11. Luizao 91. Luizinho 28. Mauricio Ribeiro . Roberto Rosa 10. Robinho 29. Thiago Freitas 18. Thomaz	14. Bruno Sena 22. David 21. DG 18. Dione 17. Elimar 20. Fabricio Oya 13. Gabriel Marques 12. Jefferson (G) 19. Joao Vitor 16. Kauan Santos 15. Lucas Marques
Coaches
Franco B.	Gilson Kleina

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Alex Paulino 🟨,
31', Jean Mangabeira 🟨,
35', Tarcisio 🟨,
41', Guilherme Pira 🟨,
42', Gustavo Fagundes 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Alex Paulino ↓, Adrianinho ↑,
55', Thiago Freitas ↓, Roberto Rosa ↑,
63', Biel Fonseca 🟨,
65', Robinho ↓, Dione ↑,
65', Karl ↓, David ↑,
71', Diego Mathias ↓, Robinho ↑,
72', Guilherme Pira ↓, Clinton U. ↑,
77', Leilson ↓, Lucas Marques ↑,
77', Jackson ↓, Joao Maranhao ↑,
82', Roberto Rosa 🟨,
82', Olavio ↓, Joao Veras ↑,
86', 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Itabaiana may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Brusque is considered a favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brusque FC
Brazilian Serie C
28.07.25	Botafogo PB - Brusque	1:3 ✺
20.07.25	Brusque - Retrô Brasil	1:2 ✺
14.07.25	Maringá - Brusque	0:2 ✺
06.07.25	Brusque - Figueirense	0:2 ✺
30.06.25	Floresta - Brusque	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WLWLL
- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Serie C
27.07.25	Itabaiana - Ituano	3:1 ✺
19.07.25	Londrina - Itabaiana	2:0 ✺
12.07.25	Itabaiana - Confiança	0:0 ✺
06.07.25	Anápolis - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
30.06.25	Itabaiana - Botafogo PB	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLTLW

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