Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 1

Date: 7 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Augusto Bauer (Brusque)


	Brusque		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.45	2.7	2.9
	2.52	2.72	2.82	Watch
	2.73	2.96	2.96
	2.52	2.98	2.91	Watch
	2.52	2.79	2.82	Watch
	2.14	2.93	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.17)	2.85 ↑ (2.84)	2.98 ↓ (3.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brusque
37%

Draw
32.2%

Náutico Capibaribe
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

32.1%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

33.3%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brusque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brusque, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Náutico Capibaribe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Brusque - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Brusque (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Náutico (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Brusque (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Náutico (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 60. Ailton Santos 15. Alex Paulino 7. Biel Fonseca 27. Diego Mathias 2. Everton Alemao 23. Guilherme Pira 30. Jean Mangabeira 97. Mateus Pivo 9. Olavio (C) 4. Torres J.	19. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 33. Carlinhos 11. Helio Borges 23. Igor Fernandes 5. Igor Pereira 40. Joao Maistro 8. Marco Antonio 34. Otusanya O. 20. Patrick Allan 7. Vinicius (C)
Substitutes
73. Adrianinho 22. Andre Luiz (G) 50. Bernardo 17. Clinton U. 80. Danielzinho 20. Douglas Oliveira 6. Italo 19. Joao Veras 11. Luizao 28. Mauricio Ribeiro 16. Roberto Rosa 18. Thomaz	80. Bruno Mezenga 70. Igor Bolt 15. Kayon 12. Kelvin 17. Marcos Ytalo 26. Raimar 3. Rayan 41. Samuel 44. Vitinho 1. Wellerson R. (G) 22. Wenderson
Coaches
Franco B.	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Patrick Allan ⚽,
28', Helio Borges 🟨,
35', Igor Pereira 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Ailton Santos ↓, Roberto Rosa ↑,
54', Joao Maistro 🟥,
60', Helio Borges ↓, Rayan ↑,
66', 🟨,
70', Patrick Allan ↓, Bruno Mezenga ↑,
70', Otusanya O. ↓, Igor Bolt ↑,
77', Igor Pereira ↓, Samuel ↑,
77', Vinicius ↓, Kayon ↑,
78', Jean Mangabeira ↓, Thomaz ↑,
78', Guilherme Pira ↓, Adrianinho ↑,
78', Mateus Pivo ↓, Danielzinho ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brusque won 1.

Recent performances by Brusque have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Náutico is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Náutico may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Brusque won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Brusque won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:7. (average 2.3:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brusque FC
Brazilian Serie C
30.08.25	Brusque - CS Alagoano	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Caxias - Brusque	0:1 ✺
17.08.25	Brusque - Londrina	1:2 ✺
10.08.25	Anápolis - Brusque	2:1 ✺
04.08.25	Brusque - Itabaiana	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWLLT
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie C
30.08.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ituano	3:0 ✺
24.08.25	São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Anápolis	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Londrina - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2 ✺
03.08.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Retrô Brasil	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
04.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Brusque	0:0
19.08.23	Brusque - Náutico Capibaribe	2:2
Brazilian Serie B
09.09.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Brusque	1:0
04.06.22	Brusque - Náutico Capibaribe	1:2
02.11.21	Brusque - Náutico Capibaribe	4:3
24.07.21	Náutico Capibaribe - Brusque	1:1

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