Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 18

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Francisco Stedile (Caxias do Sul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, Zapping


	Caxias		Brusque

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.85	3	3.9
	1.82	2.92	4.45	Watch
	1.83	3.1	5.28
	1.92	3.11	4.31	Watch
	1.91	2.9	4
	1.81	3.2	4.91	Watch
	1.92	3.15	4.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.74)	3.05 ↓ (3.45)	4.43 ↑ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caxias
49.2%

Draw
30.1%

Brusque
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

26.4%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

25.2%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Brusque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Caxias, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Caxias - Brusque Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thiago Coelho (G) 33. Alan 25. Calyson 9. Gustavo Nescau 11. Iago 4. Lucas Cunha (C) 6. Marcelo 27. Pedro Cuiaba 2. Thiago Ennes 23. Vinicius Guedes 7. Yann Rolim	1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 27. Diego Mathias 2. Everton Alemao 23. Guilherme Pira 6. Italo 30. Jean Mangabeira 97. Mateus Pivo 9. Olavio (C) 16. Roberto Rosa 18. Thomaz 4. Torres J.
Substitutes
3. Alisson 14. Carlos Henrique 44. Douglas 16. Douglas Skilo 50. Faria Giequelin L. 43. Guilherme Mantuan 28. Jhonatan Ribeiro 21. Kelvyn 5. Lorran 8. Paulinho Souza 15. Ronei 32. Victor Golas (G)	73. Adrianinho 15. Alex Paulino 22. Andre Luiz (G) 50. Bernardo 48. Caio Gomes 17. Clinton U. 11. Luizao 91. Luizinho 28. Mauricio Ribeiro 10. Robinho 29. Thiago Freitas
Coaches
Junior Rocha	Franco B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Thomaz 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Guilherme Pira ⚽,
41', Thomaz 🟨,
45+1', Olavio ↓, Bernardo ↑,
45+1', Diego Mathias ↓, Alex Paulino ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yann Rolim ↓, Guilherme Mantuan ↑,
52', Italo 🟨,
67', Pedro Cuiaba ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
67', Italo 🟨,
69', Guilherme Pira ↓, Mauricio Ribeiro ↑,
71', Guilherme Mantuan ↓, Kelvyn ↑,
80', Thiago Ennes ↓, Lorran ↑,
80', Lucas Cunha ↓, Jhonatan Ribeiro ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 9).

Caxias is Qualified for Serie C (Second stage )

Caxias is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Brusque is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Caxias is seen as the favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
18.08.25	Tombense - Caxias	0:0 ✺
09.08.25	Caxias - ABC	1:0 ✺
03.08.25	Ypiranga - Caxias	0:1 ✺
27.07.25	Caxias - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
21.07.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Caxias	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TWWWL
- Brusque FC
Brazilian Serie C
17.08.25	Brusque - Londrina	1:2 ✺
10.08.25	Anápolis - Brusque	2:1 ✺
04.08.25	Brusque - Itabaiana	0:0 ✺
28.07.25	Botafogo PB - Brusque	1:3 ✺
20.07.25	Brusque - Retrô Brasil	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LLTWL

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