Match Info

Premier League - Round 4

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Burnley		Liverpool

	1	X	2
	9	5.75	1.3
	9.25	5.5	1.31
	9.4	5.5	1.33
	9.34	5.65	1.35
	7.75	4.89	1.37	Watch
	9	5	1.33
	8.7	5.52	1.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.92 ↓ (9.51)	5.4 ↓ (5.59)	1.34 ↑ (1.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
10.7%

Draw
17.7%

Liverpool
71.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.1%

17.1%

72.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10%

16.9%

73.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Liverpool has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.2%	8.4%	88.4%

Burnley - Liverpool Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Burnley (3.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2 - Liverpool (2.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 4 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Liverpool will win (84 of 93 users predict this - 90.32%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.31% – 96.33%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Liverpool will win (45 of 48 users predict this - 93.75%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 50 Selected Experts predict this event. Burnley (votes: 2 - 4%). Liverpool (votes: 46 - 92%). Tie (votes: 2 - 4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dubravka M. (G) 2. Walker K. 18. Ekdal H. 5. Esteve M. 3. Hartman Q. 24. Cullen J. (C) 8. Ugochukwu L. 17. Tchaouna L. 29. Laurent J. 11. Anthony J. 9. Foster L.	1. Alisson (G) 8. Szoboszlai D. 5. Konate I. 4. van Dijk V. (C) 6. Kerkez M. 38. Gravenberch R. 10. Mac Allister A. 11. Salah M. 7. Wirtz F. 18. Gakpo C. 22. Ekitike H.
Substitutes
27. Broja A. 10. Edwards M. 19. Flemming Z. 16. Florentino 12. Humphreys B. 23. Lucas Pires 28. Mejbri H. 13. Weiss M. (G) 4. Worrall J.	12. Bradley C. 14. Chiesa F. 3. Endo W. 30. Frimpong J. 2. Gomez J. 25. Mamardashvili G. (G) 73. Ngumoha R. 42. Nyoni T. 26. Robertson A.
Coaches
Parker S.	Slot A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Ugochukwu L. 🟨,
22', Kerkez M. 🟨,
38', Kerkez M. ↓, Robertson A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Mac Allister A. ↓, Bradley C. ↑,
63', Cullen J. ↓, Florentino ↑,
63', Tchaouna L. ↓, Mejbri H. ↑,
72', Ekitike H. ↓, Chiesa F. ↑,
75', Bradley C. 🟨,
84', Ugochukwu L. 🟨,
86', Foster L. ↓, Worrall J. ↑,
87', Wirtz F. ↓, Ngumoha R. ↑,
87', Konate I. ↓, Frimpong J. ↑,
89', Anthony J. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
90+5', 0 - 1, Salah M. (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 0.

Burnley has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Liverpool is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Burnley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Liverpool is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Liverpool: Bajcetic S. (Hamstring Injury) Chambers L. (Back Injury) Frimpong J. (Hamstring Injury) Jones C. (Injury) Scanlon C. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 11:30. (average 0.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 4:15. (average 0.5:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English Premier League
30.08.25	Manchester United - Burnley	3:2 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Burnley - Derby County	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
23.08.25	Burnley - Sunderland	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Burnley	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Burnley - Lazio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWWLL
- Liverpool FC
English Premier League
31.08.25	Liverpool - Arsenal	1:0 ✺
25.08.25	Newcastle United - Liverpool	2:3 ✺
15.08.25	Liverpool - Bournemouth	4:2 ✺
English FA Community Shield
10.08.25	Crystal Palace - Liverpool	3:2 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
04.08.25	Liverpool - Athletic Bilbao	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
10.02.24	Liverpool - Burnley	3:1
26.12.23	Burnley - Liverpool	0:2
13.02.22	Burnley - Liverpool	0:1
21.08.21	Liverpool - Burnley	2:0
19.05.21	Burnley - Liverpool	0:3
21.01.21	Liverpool - Burnley	0:1
11.07.20	Liverpool - Burnley	1:1

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