Match Info

Championship - Round 11

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Smith L. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	06:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	15:00	ESPN 7
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	16:00	Disney+, ESPN
Bulgaria	22:00	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Colombia	14:00	ESPN 7
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	Viaplay
Ecuador	14:00	ESPN 7
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
Germany	21:00	Sky Sport Premier League
Hungary	21:00	Match 4
Iceland	19:00	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
Ireland	20:00	NOW
Israel	22:00	Sport 2
Italy	21:00	Como TV
Japan	04:00	DAZN Japan
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	13:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	21:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	08:00	beIN Connect
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport Premier League
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Norway	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Paraguay	16:00	ESPN 7
Peru	14:00	Disney+, ESPN 7
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	03:00	mio Sports 3
Slovakia	21:00	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	Arena Sport 1
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport Premier League
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Ukraine	22:00	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United Kingdom	20:00	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, ESPN 7, Inter


	Burnley		Wolverhampton Wanderers

	1	X	2
	3.00	3.40	2.30	Watch
	2.80	3.50	2.40
	3.05	3.45	2.20	Watch
	3.03	3.50	2.46
	2.97	3.59	2.29	Watch
	3.00	3.45	2.35
	2.89	3.44	2.48	Watch
	2.80	3.35	2.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↓ (3.1)	3.46 ↓ (3.48)	2.36 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
32.3%

Draw
27.5%

Wolverhampton Wanderers
40.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30%

26.7%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

26.2%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Wolverhampton Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolverhampton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Burnley - Wolverhampton Wanderers Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Burnley will win (votes: 10 - 83.3%). Wolverhampton will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burnley: 62.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Burnley (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.65) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.67) (votes: 96%) ⭐ Best Value.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.91) (votes: 88%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
37. Coudert G. (G) 2. Walker K. (C) 18. Ekdal H. 44. Igor 23. Lucas Pires 3. Alleyne M. 5. Hatate R. 19. Ramazani L. 29. Laurent J. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 9. Vardy J.	1. Sa J. (G) 38. Tchatchoua J. 34. Djiga N. 24. Toti (C) 33. Konan G. 5. Munetsi M. 7. Andre 27. Bellegarde J. 28. Lopez F. 19. Said R. 14. Neave S.
Substitutes
27. Broja A. 30. Castell L. 10. Edwards M. 17. Hountondji A. 8. Raghouber U. 14. Roberts C. 12. Satpaev D. 22. Sonne O. 1. Weiss M. (G)	3. Bueno H. 23. Chirewa T. 20. Doyle T. 8. James J. 37. Krejci L. 36. Mane M. 15. Mosquera Y. 2. Trippier K. 13. Virginia J. (G)
Coaches
Hayen N.	Peixoto C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Vardy J. ⚽, Bruun Larsen J. (A),
39', 1 - 1, Lopez F. ⚽, Neave S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Bellegarde J. ↓, Mane M. ↑,
61', Vardy J. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
61', Bruun Larsen J. ↓, Satpaev D. ↑,
63', Hatate R. 🟨,
70', Neave S. 🟨,
71', Lopez F. ↓, Doyle T. ↑,
72', Neave S. ↓, Chirewa T. ↑,
72', 1 - 2, Chirewa T. ⚽, Mane M. (A),
75', Hatate R. ↓, Edwards M. ↑,
87', Konan G. ↓, Krejci L. ↑,
87', Said R. ↓, Bueno H. ↑,
87', Alleyne M. ↓, Raghouber U. ↑,
90', Walker K. 🟨,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 21st and 10th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Burnley: Agyei E. (Muscle Injury) Ahmedhodzic A. (Knock) Barnes A. (Muscle Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Humphreys B. (Muscle Injury) Mejbri H. (Hamstring Injury) Obafemi M. (Inactive) Ramsey A. (Hamstring Injury).

Confirmed absences for Wolverhampton: Armstrong A. (Back Injury) Jimenez R. (Knee Injury) Mosquera Y. (Ankle Injury) Traore B. (Injury) Traore B. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Ankle Injury) Banel J. (Muscle Injury) Cullen J. (Knee Injury) Sambo S. (Inactive) Tresor Ndayishimiye M. (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Wolverhampton: Gomes R. (Foot Injury) Ji M. (Injury).

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Burnley has recorded 7 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:13 (averaging 1.2:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Burnley against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses, with 11:5 goals (averaging 1.4:0.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23:16	7	24
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17:25	-8	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English League Championship
13.10.26	Burnley - Charlton Athletic	2:2 ✺
10.10.26	Watford - Burnley	0:4 ✺
19.09.26	Burnley - Derby County	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Swansea City - Burnley	3:1 ✺
08.09.26	Wrexham - Burnley	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TWTLT
- Wolverhampton Wanderers
English League Championship
13.10.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Bolton Wanderers	1:3 ✺
10.10.26	Middlesbrough - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - West Bromwich Albion	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
16.09.26	Everton - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
English League Championship
13.09.26	Sheffield United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
24.05.26	Burnley - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:1
26.10.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Burnley	2:3
English League Cup
28.08.24	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Burnley	2:0
English Premier League
02.04.24	Burnley - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:1
05.12.23	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Burnley	1:0
24.04.22	Burnley - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0
01.12.21	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Burnley	0:0

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