What is the expert prediction for Manchester United vs Burnley?

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Manchester United vs Burnley Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, August 30, 2025)

Match Info

Premier League - Round 3

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Old Trafford (Manchester)

Referee: Barrott S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, One Africa, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, SuperSport Blitz, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport OTT 4, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Benin	Benin TV
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Botswana	YTV
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Cameroon	CRTV Sports
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 4 DRM
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Cote-d-ivoire	NCI
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	Canal+ Live 4
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Sky Sport Premier League
Greece	Nova Sports Premier League
Guinea	CIS
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 1, Now Sports Premier League TV
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	SÝN Sport 2
India	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	Vidio
Ireland	Premier Sports 1 ROI
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3, SuperSport 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Malawi	MBC
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 2, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mauritius	MBC 11
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	Sky Sport Premier League
Nigeria	NTA Sports, SuperSport Blitz, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport OTT 4, SuperSport Premier League
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Pro TV, Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	Hub Premier 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SABC 3, SABC Plus, SuperSport OTT 4, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 2 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool, V Sport Premium
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Tanzania	UTV
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Uganda	NBS Sport 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	BBC Radio 5 Live
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Peacock TV, SiriusXM FC
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+ Sport 1, K+, TV 360
World	Sport 24 At Sea


	Manchester United		Burnley

	1	X	2
	1.4	5	7.5
	1.35	5	8.5
	1.44	5.1	6.7
	1.42	5.2	7.41
	1.35	4.91	8.30	Watch
	1.36	4.8	8.5
	1.44	5.06	7.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↑ (1.35)	5.01 ↓ (5.27)	7.77 ↓ (8.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester United
68.6%

Draw
19.1%

Burnley
12.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.9%

18.2%

10.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.3%

17.4%

10.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Burnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Manchester United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.4%	9.1%	14.5%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 52 users predict this event. Man Utd will win (votes: 40 - 76.9%). Burnley will win (votes: 8 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man Utd: 65.4% – 88.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Man Utd (votes: 20 - 69%). Burnley (votes: 7 - 24.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 6.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Burnley (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 - Man Utd (3.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -3 - Man Utd (6.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Man Utd (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 6.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 37 Selected Experts predict this event. Man Utd (votes: 23 - 62.2%). Burnley (votes: 12 - 32.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 5.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bayindir A. (G) 15. Yoro L. 4. de Ligt M. 23. Shaw L. 16. Diallo A. 18. Casemiro 8. Fernandes B. (C) 2. Dalot D. 19. Mbeumo B. 7. Mount M. 10. Cunha M.	1. Dubravka M. (G) 2. Walker K. 18. Ekdal H. 5. Esteve M. 3. Hartman Q. 8. Ugochukwu L. 24. Cullen J. (C) 7. Bruun Larsen J. 28. Mejbri H. 11. Anthony J. 9. Foster L.
Substitutes
13. Dorgu P. 26. Heaven A. 5. Maguire H. 37. Mainoo K. 3. Mazraoui N. 24. Onana A. (G) 30. Sesko B. 25. Ugarte M. 11. Zirkzee J.	10. Edwards M. 19. Flemming Z. 29. Laurent J. 23. Lucas Pires 21. Ramsey A. 22. Sonne O. 17. Tchaouna L. 13. Weiss M. (G) 4. Worrall J.
Coaches
Amorim R.	Parker S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Cullen J. (Own goal),
31', Cunha M. ↓, Zirkzee J. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Mount M. ↓, Mainoo K. ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Foster L. ⚽, Bruun Larsen J. (A),
57', 2 - 1, Mbeumo B. ⚽, Dalot D. (A),
65', Mejbri H. ↓, Tchaouna L. ↑,
66', 2 - 2, Anthony J. ⚽,
72', Casemiro ↓, Sesko B. ↑,
76', Ugochukwu L. ↓, Laurent J. ↑,
76', Fernandes B. 🟨,
83', Bruun Larsen J. ↓, Sonne O. ↑,
83', Ekdal H. ↓, Worrall J. ↑,
85', Yoro L. ↓, Mazraoui N. ↑,
89', Tchaouna L. 🟨,
90+5', Anthony J. 🟨,
90+6', Foster L. 🟨,
90+7', 3 - 2, Fernandes B. (Pen),
90+7', Laurent J. 🟨,
90+7', Walker K. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man Utd won 3.

Man Utd has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Burnley's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Man Utd may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Man Utd is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Man Utd: Martinez Li. (Knee Injury) Mazraoui N. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Burnley: Manuel Hedilazio B. (Inactive)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Man Utd won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 26:11. (average 1.5:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Man Utd won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:10. (average 1.8:1.1).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester United
English League Cup
27.08.25	Grimsby Town - Manchester United	3:2 penalties ✺
English Premier League
24.08.25	Fulham - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Manchester United - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Manchester United - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
Premier League Summer Series
03.08.25	Manchester United - Everton	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLTT
- Burnley FC
English League Cup
26.08.25	Burnley - Derby County	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
23.08.25	Burnley - Sunderland	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Burnley	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Burnley - Lazio	0:1 ✺
02.08.25	Stoke City - Burnley	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
27.04.24	Manchester United - Burnley	1:1
23.09.23	Burnley - Manchester United	0:1
English League Cup
21.12.22	Manchester United - Burnley	2:0
English Premier League
08.02.22	Burnley - Manchester United	1:1
30.12.21	Manchester United - Burnley	3:1
18.04.21	Manchester United - Burnley	3:1
12.01.21	Burnley - Manchester United	0:1

Manchester United - Burnley: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide