Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 9

Date: 23 September 2023, Saturday

Location: Pirelli Stadium (Burton upon Trent)

Referee: Yates O. (Eng)


	Burton Albion		Fleetwood Town

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.2	2.88
	2.5	3.3	2.8	Watch
	2.56	3.48	2.82
	2.45	3.2	2.5
	2.5	3.42	2.71	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.29)	3.32 ↑ (3.08)	2.74 ↓ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burton Albion
37.3%

Draw
28.3%

Fleetwood Town
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

30.3%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

29.9%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burton Albion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Fleetwood Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fleetwood Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fleetwood Town than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fleetwood Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	11.1%	55.6%

Burton Albion - Fleetwood Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Burton will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Fleetwood will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fleetwood: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Crocombe M. (G) 37. Hamer T. 5. Hughes S. 12. Moon J. 3. Seddon S. 7. Powell J. 24. Baah K. 17. Helm M. 4. Oshilaja A. (C) 21. Carayol M. 15. Lubala B.	13. Lynch J. (G) 2. Johnston C. (C) 22. Nsiala A. 16. Heneghan B. 5. Lawal B. 11. Broom R. 10. Mayor D. 15. Quitirna J. 7. Tshimanga K. 14. Marriott J. 20. Omochere P.
Substitutes
30. Blackman J. (G) 22. Caprice J. 16. Chauke K. 25. Gilligan C. 10. Gordon J. 6. Sweeney R. 14. Walker J.	21. Hayes C. 18. Holgate H. 30. McMullan S. (G) 44. Patterson P. 6. Robertson S. 17. Simons X. 9. Stockley J.
Coaches
Maamria D.	Johnson L.

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Burton won 4.

Recent matches Burton is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Fleetwood is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Burton could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Burton won 10 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 30-30.

Including matches at home between the teams Burton won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 14-13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burton Albion
English League One
19.09.23	Port Vale - Burton Albion	2:3 ✺
16.09.23	Barnsley - Burton Albion	2:0 ✺
02.09.23	Burton Albion - Exeter City	0:1 ✺
26.08.23	Burton Albion - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
19.08.23	Wycombe Wanderers - Burton Albion	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WLLTT
- Fleetwood Town
English League One
16.09.23	Fleetwood Town - Oxford United	0:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
05.09.23	Fleetwood Town - Tranmere Rovers	2:0 ✺
English League One
02.09.23	Charlton Athletic - Fleetwood Town	2:1 ✺
26.08.23	Fleetwood Town - Shrewsbury Town	0:1 ✺
19.08.23	Derby County - Fleetwood Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
04.02.23	Fleetwood Town - Burton Albion	2:3
04.10.22	Burton Albion - Fleetwood Town	0:1
12.03.22	Burton Albion - Fleetwood Town	3:2
English FA Cup
06.11.21	Fleetwood Town - Burton Albion	1:2
English League One
19.10.21	Fleetwood Town - Burton Albion	0:1
27.04.21	Burton Albion - Fleetwood Town	5:2
12.09.20	Fleetwood Town - Burton Albion	2:1

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