Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL TROPHY - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 5 December 2023, Tuesday


	Derby County		Fleetwood Town

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.33	5.75
	1.44	4.5	6	Watch
	1.49	4.48	6.14
	1.49	4.49	6.15
	1.55	3.8	4.6
	1.44	4.45	6.1
	1.43	4.5	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.61)	4.36 ↑ (3.97)	5.82 ↑ (4.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
63%

Draw
21.1%

Fleetwood Town
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.1%

23.2%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

22.5%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Derby County's performance.

Fleetwood Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fleetwood Town than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Derby County - Fleetwood Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Vickers J. (G) 2. Wilson K. 5. Bradley S. 6. Cashin E. 3. Forsyth C. 23. Ward J. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 8. Bird M. 7. Barkhuizen T. 10. Waghorn M. 9. Collins J.	30. McMullan S. (G) 32. Earl J. 5. Lawal B. 16. Heneghan B. (C) 44. Patterson P. 22. Dolan C. 4. Wiredu B. 3. Montgomery A. 11. Broom R. 7. Tshimanga K. 14. Marriott J.
Substitutes
39. Brown D. 42. Fapetu A. 19. John-Jules T. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 35. Nelson C. 43. Weston T. 1. Wildsmith J. (G)	21. Hayes C. 18. Holgate H. 2. Johnston C. 13. Lynch J. (G) 10. Mayor D. 9. Stockley J. 8. Vela J.
Coaches
Warne P.	Johnson L.

Preview

Derby is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Fleetwood is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Derby could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Derby have a series of home games.

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Derby to win the game is with odds 1.58.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Derby won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
28.11.23	Port Vale - Derby County	0:1 ✺
25.11.23	Derby County - Bristol Rovers	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.11.23	Derby County - Crewe Alexandra	1:3 ✺
English League One
11.11.23	Derby County - Barnsley	3:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
08.11.23	Derby County - Wolverhampton Wanderers U21	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWLWW
- Fleetwood Town
English FA Cup
02.12.23	Cambridge United - Fleetwood Town	4:0 ✺
English League One
28.11.23	Wigan Athletic - Fleetwood Town	3:0 ✺
25.11.23	Fleetwood Town - Stevenage Borough	0:3 ✺
11.11.23	Fleetwood Town - Exeter City	3:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
07.11.23	Fleetwood Town - Leicester City U21	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
19.08.23	Derby County - Fleetwood Town	1:0
18.03.23	Derby County - Fleetwood Town	0:2
20.08.22	Fleetwood Town - Derby County	0:0

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