Match Info

League One - Round 3

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Meadow Lane (Nottingham)

Referee: Dowle K. (Eng)


	Notts County		Burton Albion

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.40	3.20	Watch
	2.15	3.25	3.30
	2.02	3.40	3.65	Watch
	2.26	3.36	3.46
	2.01	3.44	3.64	Watch
	2.20	3.20	3.40
	2.18	3.38	3.18	Watch
	2.19	3.40	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.34)	3.35 ↑ (3.3)	3.39 ↑ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Notts County
44%

Draw
28.1%

Burton Albion
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

28.2%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

28.6%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Notts County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Burton Albion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Notts County - Burton Albion Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Notts County will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Burton will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Belshaw J. (G) 2. Gibbons J. 12. Ness L. 4. Bedeau J. (C) 25. Tsaroulla N. 27. Finneran R. 15. Evans J. 14. Lipsiuc D. 42. Mustapha H. 7. Roberts C. 8. Cooper O.	34. Addai C. (G) 6. Sibbick T. 26. Delap F. 16. Tilt C. (C) 15. Lofthouse K. 12. Evans G. 41. Krubally S. 3. Armer J. 4. Chauke K. 8. Webster C. 40. Scutt Z.
Substitutes
44. Baker M. 11. Grant C. 21. Griffiths H. (G) 17. Kouhyar Q. 49. Muir K. 26. Samuels-Smith I. 19. Smyth L.	23. Adiele E. 29. Adom K. 24. Araujo H. 14. Collar W. 27. Dudek K. (G) 10. Shade T. 20. Sraha J.
Coaches
Paterson M.	Bowyer G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Delap F. ⚽, Armer J. (A),
34', Tilt C. 🟨,
36', Finneran R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Evans J. ↓, Smyth L. ↑,
51', Armer J. 🟨,
52', Krubally S. 🟨,
62', Krubally S. ↓, Collar W. ↑,
62', Scutt Z. ↓, Shade T. ↑,
65', Evans G. 🟨,
66', Roberts C. ↓, Grant C. ↑,
66', Lipsiuc D. ↓, Kouhyar Q. ↑,
78', 1 - 1, Smyth L. ⚽, Tsaroulla N. (A),
83', Tilt C. 🟥,
84', 2 - 1, Smyth L. (Penalty Awarded),
87', Evans G. ↓, Adom K. ↑,
90', Tsaroulla N. ↓, Samuels-Smith I. ↑,

Preview

Notts County is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Burton has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Burton: Adom K. (Inactive) Kalinauskas T. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Notts County: Jones J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Burton: Shade T. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Notts County won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Notts County won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Outrights of English League One for now

Burton: 0.63% Notts County: 0.61%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Burton	10	3	3	4	14:16	-2	12
22	Notts County	8	1	4	3	8:11	-3	7

Last Results with these Odds

Notts County - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 39.81%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Burton Albion - the odds 2.91 are the expected chance of winning is 31.98%, but this team recently wins 19% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Notts County
English League One
22.08.26	Luton Town - Notts County	2:2 ✺
15.08.26	Notts County - Leicester City	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Burnley - Notts County	2:1 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Walsall - Notts County	0:0 ✺
18.07.26	Notts County - Nottingham Forest	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TTLTL
- Burton Albion
English League One
22.08.26	Leicester City - Burton Albion	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Burton Albion - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Burton Albion - Blackburn Rovers	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Burton Albion - Derby County	1:0 ✺
28.07.26	Solihull Moors - Burton Albion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.4 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
24.09.24	Burton Albion - Notts County	1:2
03.09.13	Notts County - Burton Albion	1:0

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