Match Info

League One - Round 33

Date: 17 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Pirelli Stadium (Burton upon Trent)

Referee: Byrne A. (Eng)


	Burton Albion		Rotherham United

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.3
	2.12	3.35	3.25
	2.19	3.46	3.39
	2.15	3.33	3.34	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3
	2.17	3.3	3.31	Watch
	2.12	3.33	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.21)	3.3 ↑ (3.2)	3.28 ↑ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burton Albion
43.3%

Draw
28.3%

Rotherham United
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

29.1%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

28.6%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burton Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Rotherham United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rotherham United than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Burton Albion - Rotherham United Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Burton will win (votes: 12 - 80%). Rotherham will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burton: 59.8% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Burton (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Burton (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Burton (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Collins B. (G) 2. Godwin-Malife U. (C) 5. Vancooten T. 16. Hartridge A. 15. Lofthouse K. 12. Evans G. 4. Chauke K. 6. Sibbick T. 22. Larsson J. 9. Beesley J. 10. Shade T.	1. Dawson C. (G) 15. Baptiste J. 26. Douglas H. 3. Jules Z. 28. Cover B. 8. Spence K. 16. Yearwood D. 6. James R. 17. McWilliams S. 10. Nombe S. (C) 24. Gray H.
Substitutes
29. Adom K. 42. Cannon A. 27. Dudek K. (G) 41. Krubally S. 28. Matthews Lewis M. 18. Moon J. 11. Tavares F.	19. Benson J. 29. Biancheri G. 13. Cann T. (G) 14. Kaleta M. 2. Rafferty J. 49. Sousa L. 20. Watmore D.
Coaches
Bowyer G.	Hamshaw M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Douglas H. ↓, Rafferty J. ↑,
23', 1 - 0, Shade T. ⚽, Lofthouse K. (A),
36', Yearwood D. 🟨,
45+1', Jules Z. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yearwood D. ↓, Kaleta M. ↑,
54', Vancooten T. 🟨,
69', Larsson J. ↓, Cannon A. ↑,
69', Cover B. ↓, Watmore D. ↑,
81', Vancooten T. ↓, Moon J. ↑,
85', Kaleta M. ↓, Sousa L. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burton won 2.

Burton is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Rotherham has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Burton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Burton won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Burton won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 1.7:0.7).

Outrights of English League One for now

Burton: 0.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Burton	10	3	3	4	14:16	-2	12

Last Results with these Odds

Rotherham United - the odds 3.24 are the expected chance of winning is 28.74%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burton Albion
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Burton Albion - West Ham United	0:1 ET ✺
English League One
07.02.26	Port Vale - Burton Albion	2:2 ✺
03.02.26	Burton Albion - Doncaster Rovers	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Burton Albion - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
27.01.26	Bolton Wanderers - Burton Albion	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LTLTL
- Rotherham United
English League One
07.02.26	Rotherham United - Cardiff City	0:3 ✺
31.01.26	Exeter City - Rotherham United	0:4 ✺
27.01.26	Rotherham United - Northampton Town	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Rotherham United - AFC Wimbledon	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Stockport County - Rotherham United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
04.11.25	Rotherham United - Burton Albion	2:2
25.01.25	Burton Albion - Rotherham United	4:2
14.09.24	Rotherham United - Burton Albion	2:2
19.04.22	Burton Albion - Rotherham United	2:0
11.12.21	Rotherham United - Burton Albion	3:1
01.02.20	Rotherham United - Burton Albion	3:2
17.08.19	Burton Albion - Rotherham United	0:1

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