Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL TROPHY - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 22 November 2022, Tuesday

Location: Pirelli Stadium (Burton upon Trent)

Referee: Parsons T. (Eng)


	Burton Albion		Tranmere Rovers

	1	X	2
	1.93	3.3	3.3
	1.93	3.45	3.4
	1.96	3.55	3.5
	1.96	3.57	3.64
	1.95	3.25	3.5
	2	3.58	3.58
	1.94	3.5	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.06)	3.46 ↓ (3.65)	3.48 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burton Albion
47%

Draw
26.6%

Tranmere Rovers
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

25%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

23%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burton Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Tranmere Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Burton Albion that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tranmere Rovers than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tranmere Rovers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Burton Albion - Tranmere Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Burton will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Tranmere will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burton: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Recent matches Burton is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Tranmere is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Burton will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Burton won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Burton won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burton Albion
English League One
19.11.22	Burton Albion - Plymouth Argyle	2:2 ✺
12.11.22	Burton Albion - Charlton Athletic	3:3 ✺
English FA Cup
05.11.22	Burton Albion - Needham Market	2:0 ✺
English League One
29.10.22	Sheffield Wednesday - Burton Albion	4:2 ✺
25.10.22	Bolton Wanderers - Burton Albion	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTWLL
- Tranmere Rovers
English League Two
19.11.22	Tranmere Rovers - AFC Wimbledon	0:2 ✺
12.11.22	Swindon Town - Tranmere Rovers	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
05.11.22	Carlisle United - Tranmere Rovers	2:1 ✺
English League Two
01.11.22	Tranmere Rovers - Stockport County	0:0 ✺
29.10.22	Tranmere Rovers - Carlisle United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
26.12.19	Burton Albion - Tranmere Rovers	4:2
21.09.19	Tranmere Rovers - Burton Albion	2:1
English League Two
21.03.15	Tranmere Rovers - Burton Albion	1:4
26.12.14	Burton Albion - Tranmere Rovers	2:0

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