Match Info

K3 League - Round 19

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Busan Gudeok Stadium (Busan)


	Busan Kyotong		Changwon City

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.10	2.70
	2.60	2.95	2.55	Watch
	2.55	3.20	2.93
	2.45	3.06	2.84	Watch
	2.55	2.75	2.95
	2.49	3.22	2.80
	2.43	2.85	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.78)	3.02 ↓ (3.31)	2.8 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Busan Kyotong
36.8%

Draw
30.4%

Changwon City
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

27.8%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

28%

39.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Busan Kyotong has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Changwon City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Changwon City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Busan Kyotong than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Changwon City than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Changwon City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Busan Kyotong - Changwon City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, ⚽,
15', 2 - 0, ⚽,
45+2', 3 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
49', 4 - 0, ⚽,
54', 4 - 1, ⚽,
58', 4 - 2, ⚽,
66', 4 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Busan Kyotong won 2.

Busan Kyotong is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Changwon has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Changwon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Changwon has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Busan Kyotong won 4 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:23. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Busan Kyotong won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 1:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Busan Kyotong	23	10	7	6	40:29	11	37
8	Changwon	23	7	8	8	26:28	-2	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Busan Kyotong FC
South Korean K3 K4 League Cup
14.08.26	Busan Kyotong - Ulsan Citizen	1:0 ✺
South Korean Cup
29.07.26	Busan Kyotong - Jinju Citizen	1:2 penalties ✺
South Korean K3 League
26.07.26	Yangpyeong - Busan Kyotong	2:4 ✺
South Korean Cup
15.07.26	Busan Kyotong - Suwon Bluewings	2:1 ET ✺
South Korean K3 League
11.07.26	Siheung - Busan Kyotong	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 WLWWW
- Changwon City FC
South Korean K3 League
26.07.26	Changwon City - Jeonbuk 2	1:1 ✺
South Korean Cup
15.07.26	Changwon City - Gimhae	1:5 ✺
South Korean K3 League
12.07.26	Changwon City - Chuncheon	1:1 ✺
South Korean Cup
04.07.26	Changwon City - Geumsan Insam	3:0 ✺
South Korean K3 League
27.06.26	Changwon City - Yeoju	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K3 League
11.04.26	Changwon City - Busan Kyotong	0:0
08.11.25	Changwon City - Busan Kyotong	3:0
28.06.25	Busan Kyotong - Changwon City	2:1
21.07.24	Busan Kyotong - Changwon City	2:1
07.04.24	Changwon City - Busan Kyotong	2:1
27.10.23	Changwon City - Busan Kyotong	1:2
02.06.23	Busan Kyotong - Changwon City	0:1

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