Match Info

K3 League - Round 28

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Busan Gudeok Stadium (Busan)


	Busan Kyotong		Paju Frontier

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.1	2.82	Watch
	2.27	3.2	2.72
	2.35	3.18	2.83	Watch
	2.37	3.02	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.35)	3.13 ↓ (3.18)	2.82 ↓ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Busan Kyotong
38.9%

Draw
29%

Paju Frontier
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

28.8%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

29%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Busan Kyotong have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Paju Frontier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Busan Kyotong than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

The ML Model estimate for Paju Frontier aligns with the current prediction.

Busan Kyotong - Paju Frontier Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
70', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+5', 1 - 2, (Pen),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Busan Kyotong won 3.

Recent performances by Busan Kyotong have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Paju Citizen is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Paju Citizen may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Busan Kyotong won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 0.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Busan Kyotong won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Paju Frontier - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 32.32%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Busan Kyotong FC
South Korean K3 League
12.10.25	Gangneung - Busan Kyotong	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Busan Kyotong - Gimhae	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Busan Kyotong - Daejeon Korail	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Ulsan Citizen - Busan Kyotong	0:1 ✺
07.09.25	Busan Kyotong - Jeonbuk 2	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLLWW
- Paju Frontier
South Korean K3 League
27.09.25	Yeoju - Paju Frontier	0:2 ✺
20.09.25	Paju Frontier - Changwon City	0:0 ✺
14.09.25	Chuncheon - Paju Frontier	0:3 ✺
06.09.25	Paju Frontier - Gyeongju KH&NP	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Paju Frontier - Gangneung	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K3 League
15.06.25	Paju Frontier - Busan Kyotong	0:1
31.08.24	Paju Frontier - Busan Kyotong	1:2
04.05.24	Busan Kyotong - Paju Frontier	1:3
09.07.23	Paju Frontier - Busan Kyotong	0:1
26.03.23	Busan Kyotong - Paju Frontier	0:1
13.08.22	Paju Frontier - Busan Kyotong	1:1
17.04.22	Busan Kyotong - Paju Frontier	0:0

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