Match Info

K3 League - Round 25

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Paju Stadium (Paju)


	Paju Frontier		Changwon City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.92	2.78	2.45
	3.13	2.9	2.71
	2.95	2.68	2.80	Watch
	2.98	2.74	2.51
	2.82	3.15	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.8)	2.85 ↓ (3.12)	2.57 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paju Frontier
31.4%

Draw
32.6%

Changwon City
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

29.1%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

29.3%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paju Frontier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Changwon City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paju Frontier than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Changwon City than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Paju Frontier - Changwon City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paju Citizen won 2.

Paju Citizen has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Changwon is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Paju Citizen won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Paju Citizen won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paju Frontier
South Korean K3 League
14.09.25	Chuncheon - Paju Frontier	0:3 ✺
06.09.25	Paju Frontier - Gyeongju KH&NP	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Paju Frontier - Gangneung	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Gimhae - Paju Frontier	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Paju Frontier - Daejeon Korail	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WTWLL
- Changwon City FC
South Korean K3 League
13.09.25	Changwon City - Gangneung	2:1 ✺
07.09.25	Gimhae - Changwon City	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Changwon City - Daejeon Korail	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	Ulsan Citizen - Changwon City	0:1 ✺
01.08.25	Changwon City - Jeonbuk 2	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K3 League
25.05.25	Changwon City - Paju Frontier	0:1
13.07.24	Paju Frontier - Changwon City	1:2
30.03.24	Changwon City - Paju Frontier	1:2
19.08.23	Paju Frontier - Changwon City	1:2
21.04.23	Changwon City - Paju Frontier	0:0
02.07.22	Paju Frontier - Changwon City	2:0
19.03.22	Changwon City - Paju Frontier	0:1

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