Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 15

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla (Cadiz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	DSports 6
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion 2, Movistar Plus+
Uruguay	DSports 6


	Cádiz		Leonesa

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.95	3.7	Watch
	2.12	3	3.55	Watch
	1.96	3.35	4.55
	1.81	3.48	4.59	Watch
	2.14	3.08	4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.57)	3.17 ↓ (3.68)	4.08 ↓ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cádiz
46.8%

Draw
29.9%

Leonesa
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

24.6%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

23.8%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cádiz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cádiz's form might have worsened.

Leonesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leonesa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cádiz than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cádiz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leonesa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.8%	23.5%	17.6%

Cádiz - Leonesa Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Cádiz will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). Leonesa will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cádiz: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Leonesa (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Leonesa (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Leonesa (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Aznar V. (G) 20. Carcelen I. 14. Kovacevic B. 6. Ortega I. 21. Climent M. 12. Tabatadze I. 18. Diarra Y. 15. Ortuno S. 7. Ugiagbe E. 11. Suso (C) 23. Pascual A.	13. Badia E. (G) 17. Calero I. 4. Rodri Suarez (C) 36. Barzic M. 21. Hinojo R. 15. Ribeiro L. 23. Diallo Selu M. 28. Ojeda T. 2. Mboula J. 10. Chacon L. 9. Justo M.
Substitutes
29. Caicedo A. 17. Camara D. 19. de la Rosa J. 5. Diakite M. 8. Fernandez A. 1. Gil D. (G) 24. Gonzalez J. 9. Marti R. 2. Moreno J. 10. Ocampo B. 22. Ontiveros J. 33. Pereira R.	1. Banuz M. (G) 7. Collado D. 11. Cortes P. 5. Fornos Q. 24. Garcia V. 8. Gonzalez Y. 33. Larios J. 6. Maestre S. 22. Pibe 26. Rafus A. (G) 16. Ribeiro T. 20. Tresaco R.
Coaches
Garitano G.	Ziganda C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
12', 1 - 0, Ugiagbe E. ⚽,
21', 1 - 1, Barzic M. ⚽, Mboula J. (A),
28', Ojeda T. 🟨,
37', 1 - 2, Justo M. ⚽, Ribeiro L. (A),
38', Tabatadze I. ↓, Ocampo B. ↑,
38', Diarra Y. ↓, Diakite M. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ugiagbe E. ↓, Marti R. ↑,
51', Suso (Pen),
56', Ortega I. 🟨,
61', Ribeiro L. ↓, Gonzalez Y. ↑,
61', Mboula J. ↓, Tresaco R. ↑,
69', Pascual A. ↓, Camara D. ↑,
77', Ortuno S. ↓, Ontiveros J. ↑,
81', Calero I. ↓, Garcia V. ↑,
81', Justo M. ↓, Collado D. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 8 and 15).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Cádiz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Cádiz has had a series of away games.

In this match, Cádiz is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Cádiz: Carcelen I. (Muscle Injury) Fali (Knee Injury) Ontiveros J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Leonesa: Satrustegui E. (Knee Injury) Sobrino R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Leonesa: Bicho (Inactive) Pibe (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Cádiz won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Cádiz won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cádiz CF
Spanish LaLiga2
16.11.25	Almería - Cádiz	3:0 ✺
09.11.25	Cádiz - Valladolid	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	FC Andorra - Cádiz	0:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	UCAM Murcia - Cádiz	1:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
25.10.25	Granada - Cádiz	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTTWT
- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Spanish LaLiga2
17.11.25	Leonesa - Málaga	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Deportivo A Coruña - Leonesa	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	Leonesa - Mirandés	3:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	Tropezón - Leonesa	1:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
25.10.25	Leonesa - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
17.03.18	Leonesa - Cádiz	0:1
14.10.17	Cádiz - Leonesa	2:2

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