Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 14

Date: 17 November 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Reino de León (León)

Referee: Gonzalez Esteban J. A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Dsports 9
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Ecuador	DSports 9
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Mexico	Sky Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DSports 9
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+


	Leonesa		Málaga

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.05	3.3	Watch
	2.3	3.05	3.15
	2.4	3.06	3.53
	2.24	3.36	3.19	Watch
	2.4	3.16	3.35	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.24)	3.14 ↓ (3.36)	3.3 ↑ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leonesa
41.1%

Draw
30.2%

Málaga
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

28.1%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

27.8%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leonesa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Málaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	33.3%	6.7%

Leonesa - Málaga Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Leonesa will win (votes: 9 - 60%). Málaga will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leonesa: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Leonesa (votes: 1 - 50%). Málaga (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Málaga (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Leonesa (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Málaga (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Badia E. (G) 17. Calero I. 4. Rodri Suarez (C) 16. Ribeiro T. 21. Hinojo R. 28. Ojeda T. 23. Diallo Selu M. 15. Ribeiro L. 10. Chacon L. 2. Mboula J. 9. Justo M.	1. Herrero A. (C) 31. Rafita 16. Murillo D. 20. Montero J. 14. Garcia V. 23. Merino I. 22. Lorenzo D. 10. Larrubia D. 37. Rodriguez R. 24. Lobete J. 17. Jauregi E.
Substitutes
1. Banuz M. (G) 7. Collado D. 11. Cortes P. 5. Fornos Q. 24. Garcia V. 8. Gonzalez Y. 33. Larios J. 6. Maestre S. 26. Rafus A. (G) 20. Tresaco R.	7. Abaida H. 26. Arriaza P. 9. Chupe 25. Dorrio J. 12. Dotor C. 4. Galilea E. 13. Lopez C. (G) 11. Munoz J. 21. Nino A. 3. Puga C. 36. Recio A. 18. Sanchez D.
Coaches
Ziganda C.	Pellicer S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Merino I. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Ribeiro L. ⚽, Calero I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Merino I. ↓, Nino A. ↑,
65', Justo M. ↓, Gonzalez Y. ↑,
65', Mboula J. ↓, Tresaco R. ↑,
70', Lobete J. ↓, Dorrio J. ↑,
70', Larrubia D. ↓, Dotor C. ↑,
76', Ribeiro L. ↓, Collado D. ↑,
76', Montero J. 🟨,
79', Montero J. ↓, Munoz J. ↑,
79', Rafita ↓, Puga C. ↑,
90', Chacon L. ↓, Maestre S. ↑,
90', Calero I. ↓, Garcia V. ↑,
90+3', Murillo D. 🟥,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 16).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Leonesa: Satrustegui E. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Málaga: Chupe (Injury) Diarra M. (Knee Injury) Enriquez R. (Knee Injury) Luismi (Face Injury) Pastor A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Málaga: Juanpe (Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Leonesa - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 42.21%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Spanish LaLiga2
08.11.25	Deportivo A Coruña - Leonesa	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	Leonesa - Mirandés	3:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
28.10.25	Tropezón - Leonesa	1:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
25.10.25	Leonesa - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Zaragoza - Leonesa	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LWWLW
- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
08.11.25	Málaga - Córdoba	2:2 ✺
02.11.25	Castellón - Málaga	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
30.10.25	Estepona - Málaga	1:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
26.10.25	Málaga - FC Andorra	4:1 ✺
19.10.25	Leganés - Málaga	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLWWL

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