Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 25

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Pedro Escartín (Guadalajara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	CD Guadalajara		Ourense CF

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.9	2.9
	2.4	2.92	3
	2.5	2.81	3.05
	2.51	2.96	3	Watch
	2.4	2.7	2.9
	2.4	2.9	2.97
	2.36	2.8	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.38)	2.86 ↓ (3.03)	2.95 ↓ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CD Guadalajara
37.5%

Draw
31.8%

Ourense CF
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

30.6%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

30.4%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CD Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Ourense CF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

CD Guadalajara - Ourense CF Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zarco A. (G) 5. Gallardo D. 4. Ablanque J. (C) 23. Casado J. 2. Perez L. 8. Calvo T. 20. Miki 14. Tavares R. 19. Munoz P. 17. Gomez J. 7. Neskes	13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 2. Coto E. 5. Prado M. 14. Perez A. 3. Sanz H. (C) 21. Guerrero A. 24. Moreno C. 8. Ramos J. 17. Hernandez R. 18. Rabadan D. 9. Sergio Benito
Substitutes
11. Alvarez U. 10. Amigo D. 27. Mayo N. 3. Moreno A. 15. Rodriguez V. 6. Rojo P. 34. Susilla S. 29. Verdu M. 13. Vicente D. (G)	11. Aranzabe A. 20. Gueye L. 12. Jelbat A. 16. Munoz D. 10. Ochoa M. 23. Punzano I. 1. Raton A. (G) 15. Rivas L. 22. Yuste A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Hernandez R. 🟨,
33', Moreno C. ↓, Yuste A. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', 🟨,
62', Ramos J. ↓, Munoz D. ↑,
62', Guerrero A. ↓, Punzano I. ↑,
63', Sergio Benito ↓, Ochoa M. ↑,
64', Miki ↓, Amigo D. ↑,
64', Neskes ↓, Alvarez U. ↑,
79', 🟨,
84', Mayo N. 🟨,
85', 1 - 0, Alvarez U. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Guadalajara is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ourense CF has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ourense CF may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Guadalajara won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Guadalajara
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
15.02.26	Lugo - CD Guadalajara	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	CD Guadalajara - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Tenerife - CD Guadalajara	4:0 ✺
25.01.26	CD Guadalajara - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Barakaldo - CD Guadalajara	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLLL
- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.02.26	Ourense CF - Mérida AD	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Ourense CF	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Ourense CF	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Ourense CF - Cacereño	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Ourense CF - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
16.11.25	Ourense CF - CD Guadalajara	3:0

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