Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 20

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo de Lasesarre (Barakaldo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	CMM TV, Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Barakaldo		CD Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.2	4.5
	1.82	3.3	4.25
	1.77	3.56	4.49	Watch
	1.8	3	4
	1.73	3.35	4.48
	1.72	3.4	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.71)	3.3 ↓ (3.56)	4.33 ↓ (4.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barakaldo
51.5%

Draw
27.5%

CD Guadalajara
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

26.1%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

25.6%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

CD Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Barakaldo - CD Guadalajara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Campos G. (G) 7. Pedernales I. 18. Arana M. 24. Ropero I. 16. Lopez O. 20. Mandiang S. 8. Huidobro J. (C) 15. Jimenez I. 14. Munoz I. 19. Galarza A. 21. San Bartolome V.	1. Zarco A. (G) 5. Gallardo D. 4. Ablanque J. (C) 23. Casado J. 18. Martinez J. 8. Calvo T. 22. Samuel 14. Tavares R. 17. Gomez J. 24. Caropitche S. M. 7. Neskes
Substitutes
23. Albizua U. 17. de Leon J. 4. Dufur U. 3. Garcia B. 1. Ispizua I. (G) 5. Molina E. 10. Sabin 22. Torra M. 9. Valino A.	11. Alvarez U. 9. Canizo A. 27. Mayo N. 20. Miki 19. Munoz P. 21. Perero G. 15. Rodriguez V. 6. Rojo P. 13. Vicente D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
29', 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Huidobro J. ⚽,
32', 🟨,
34', 2 - 0, Galarza A. ⚽,
44', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', 2 - 1, Calvo T. ⚽,
56', Arana M. 🟨,
57', Jimenez I. 🟨,
69', Ropero I. ↓, Sabin ↑,
69', San Bartolome V. ↓, Molina E. ↑,
70', San Bartolome V. ↓, Dufur U. ↑,
79', Galarza A. ↓, Valino A. ↑,
80', Neskes ↓, Alvarez U. ↑,
80', Calvo T. ↓, Canizo A. ↑,
84', Mandiang S. ↓, Albizua U. ↑,
89', 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Recent performances by Barakaldo have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Guadalajara is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Barakaldo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Barakaldo is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barakaldo won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 2:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Barakaldo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Barakaldo	6	1	3	2	6:9	-3	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.01.26	Celta de Vigo B - Barakaldo	1:2 ✺
03.01.26	Barakaldo - Unionistas de Salamanca	5:0 ✺
21.12.25	Barakaldo - Pontevedra	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Ourense CF - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
07.12.25	Barakaldo - Real Avilés	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWLTL
- CD Guadalajara
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
10.01.26	CD Guadalajara - Cacereño	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Talavera de la Reina - CD Guadalajara	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	CD Guadalajara - Zamora	2:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.12.25	CD Guadalajara - Barcelona	0:2 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.12.25	Real Madrid Castilla - CD Guadalajara	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
18.10.25	CD Guadalajara - Barakaldo	1:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
07.02.16	Barakaldo - CD Guadalajara	3:2
19.09.15	CD Guadalajara - Barakaldo	0:1
19.04.15	CD Guadalajara - Barakaldo	0:4
30.11.14	Barakaldo - CD Guadalajara	1:0

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