Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 21

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Pedro Escartín (Guadalajara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	CD Guadalajara		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.9	2.7
	2.58	2.98	2.78
	2.63	2.96	2.91
	2.63	2.93	2.88	Watch
	2.5	2.7	2.75
	2.53	2.83	2.76
	2.57	2.83	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.49)	2.88 ↓ (2.92)	2.78 ↓ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CD Guadalajara
35.6%

Draw
31.7%

Ponferradina
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

31%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

29.9%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CD Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

CD Guadalajara - Ponferradina Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zarco A. (G) 5. Gallardo D. 4. Ablanque J. 23. Casado J. 18. Martinez J. 20. Miki 22. Samuel 19. Munoz P. 8. Calvo T. 17. Gomez J. 24. Caropitche S. M.	1. Prieto A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 3. Novoa G. 4. Moltenis B. 19. Lopez A. 18. Vazquez B. 24. Moran E. 6. San Emeterio F. 20. Ferrer P. 9. Cortes J. 10. Valle B. (C)
Substitutes
11. Alvarez U. 9. Canizo A. 27. Mayo N. 7. Neskes 21. Perero G. 15. Rodriguez V. 6. Rojo P. 14. Tavares R. 13. Vicente D. (G)	8. Aguilar Elizalde E. 25. Barredo P. (G) 22. Esquerdo V. 14. Fernandez X. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 17. Keita A. 26. Kysil V. 12. Lian 21. Moreno D. 7. Sergio Benito 15. Sousa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', 🟨,
45+2', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ferrer P. ↓, Fernandez X. ↑,
51', 🟨,
56', 0 - 1, Moltenis B. ⚽,
57', Samuel ↓, Tavares R. ↑,
60', 🟨,
66', Munoz P. ↓, Alvarez U. ↑,
66', Miki ↓, Neskes ↑,
68', 🟨,
76', Moran E. ↓, Esquerdo V. ↑,
76', Valle B. ↓, Keita A. ↑,
78', 🟨,
81', Gomez J. ↓, Perero G. ↑,
81', Calvo T. ↓, Canizo A. ↑,
81', Cortes J. ↓, Sergio Benito ↑,
90', San Emeterio F. ↓, Kysil V. ↑,
90+2', 🟨,
90+7', 🟥,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Guadalajara is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ponferradina has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Guadalajara may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 2.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Guadalajara won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Guadalajara
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
18.01.26	Barakaldo - CD Guadalajara	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	CD Guadalajara - Cacereño	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Talavera de la Reina - CD Guadalajara	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	CD Guadalajara - Zamora	2:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.12.25	CD Guadalajara - Barcelona	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LTLLL
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.01.26	Ponferradina - Ferrol	3:0 ✺
10.01.26	Ponferradina - Ourense CF	2:0 ✺
04.01.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Ponferradina	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Tenerife - Ponferradina	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Ponferradina - Arenteiro	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.09.25	Ponferradina - CD Guadalajara	1:3
Spanish Copa del Rey
12.11.22	CD Guadalajara - Ponferradina	2:1
Spanish LaLiga2
17.03.13	Ponferradina - CD Guadalajara	2:2
13.10.12	CD Guadalajara - Ponferradina	2:0

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