Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 24

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	CMM TV, Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Lugo		CD Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.4	5.5
	1.65	3.45	5.15
	1.62	3.71	5.39
	1.64	3.65	5.37
	1.62	3.3	4.8
	1.61	3.48	5.23
	1.6	3.33	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.84)	3.47 ↑ (3.19)	5.25 ↑ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
56.5%

Draw
26.2%

CD Guadalajara
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

28.4%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

27.6%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugo's performance.

CD Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lugo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Lugo - CD Guadalajara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez M. (C) 2. Rodriguez Y. 16. Jose Amo 3. Garriz I. 6. Haro P. 8. Balboa A. 14. Presa K. 9. Celorio N. 5. Gallar A. 19. Unzueta I. 11. Pastrana V.	1. Zarco A. (G) 5. Gallardo D. (C) 23. Casado J. 2. Perez L. 27. Mayo N. 7. Neskes 14. Tavares R. 22. Samuel 17. Gomez J. 9. Canizo A. 11. Alvarez U.
Substitutes
18. Costa G. 24. Gaya J. 7. Gonzalez J. 23. Junior L. 33. Munoz M. 13. Piedra I. (G) 22. Samanes S. 25. Sanchez B. 21. Teofilovic O. 4. Trigueros P.	10. Amigo D. 8. Calvo T. 20. Miki 3. Moreno A. 19. Munoz P. 15. Rodriguez V. 6. Rojo P. 34. Susilla S. 13. Vicente D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Jose Amo 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Rodriguez Y. ⚽,
40', Perez L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Canizo A. ↓, Calvo T. ↑,
57', Casado J. 🟨,
61', 2 - 0, Unzueta I. ⚽,
61', Samuel ↓, Miki ↑,
61', Alvarez U. ↓, Munoz P. ↑,
65', Rodriguez Y. 🟨,
68', Pastrana V. ↓, Junior L. ↑,
68', Celorio N. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
81', Balboa A. ↓, Costa G. ↑,
81', Unzueta I. ↓, Teofilovic O. ↑,
85', Gallar A. ↓, Sanchez B. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Recent performances by Lugo have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Guadalajara's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lugo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lugo is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lugo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 0.7:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Lugo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugo	6	5	1	0	9:3	6	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.02.26	Ferrol - Lugo	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Real Avilés - Lugo	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Lugo - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:3 ✺
10.01.26	Arenteiro - Lugo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TLWLW
- CD Guadalajara
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.02.26	CD Guadalajara - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Tenerife - CD Guadalajara	4:0 ✺
25.01.26	CD Guadalajara - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Barakaldo - CD Guadalajara	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	CD Guadalajara - Cacereño	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.11.25	CD Guadalajara - Lugo	1:1
Spanish LaLiga2
02.06.13	CD Guadalajara - Lugo	0:1
06.01.13	Lugo - CD Guadalajara	0:0

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