Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 38

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Pedro Escartín (Guadalajara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, RTVE Play, Teledeporte
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV


	CD Guadalajara		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.8	1.6
	4.4	3.6	1.62
	4.25	3.7	1.7
	3.5	3.89	1.88
	3.17	4.32	1.89	Watch
	4.4	3.6	1.6
	4.47	3.82	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.1 ↑ (3.44)	3.82 ↑ (3.45)	1.7 ↓ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

CD Guadalajara
22.3%

Draw
24%

Real Madrid Castilla
53.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27%

26.9%

46%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26%

25.9%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CD Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Madrid Castilla's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CD Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Madrid Castilla, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

CD Guadalajara - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Vicente D. (G) 4. Ablanque J. 23. Casado J. (C) 15. Rodriguez V. 5. Gallardo D. 6. Rojo P. 22. Samuel 14. Tavares R. 16. Cadete 21. Perero G. 11. Alvarez U.	1. Fran (G) 2. Jimenez D. 4. Rivas M. 15. Martinez J. 21. Aguado D. 20. Fortuny P. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 46. Rezola M. 10. Palacios C. (C) 18. Fettal R. 29. Ortega J.
Substitutes
10. Amigo D. 32. Delgado A. 33. Exposito R. 26. Lopez M. (G) 18. Martinez J. 27. Mayo I. 20. Miki 3. Moreno A. 19. Munoz P. 7. Neskes 2. Perez L. 34. Susilla S.	49. Arnuncio A. 47. Ciria A. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 39. Leiva A. 50. Mesa O. 30. Mesonero D. 25. Mestre S. (G) 6. Perea C. 44. Sotres A. 13. Sunico G. (G) 7. Yanez D. 9. Zuniga L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Alvarez U. ⚽,
28', 2 - 0, Alvarez U. ⚽,
43', 2 - 1, Fortuny P. ⚽,
45', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
80', 🟨,
81', 2 - 2, Martinez J. ⚽,
90+3', 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Real Madrid Castilla is considered a favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:18. (average 1.4:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Guadalajara won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1.3:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid Castilla - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 46.03%, but this team recently wins 62% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Guadalajara
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.05.26	Athletic Bilbao B - CD Guadalajara	2:1 ✺
09.05.26	CD Guadalajara - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
02.05.26	Real Avilés - CD Guadalajara	2:2 ✺
24.04.26	Cacereño - CD Guadalajara	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	CD Guadalajara - Pontevedra	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWTTL
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.05.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Arenas Club de Getxo	3:3 ✺
09.05.26	Cacereño - Real Madrid Castilla	4:1 ✺
02.05.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Talavera de la Reina - Real Madrid Castilla	1:2 ✺
14.04.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Ourense CF	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.12.25	Real Madrid Castilla - CD Guadalajara	3:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
03.04.16	Real Madrid Castilla - CD Guadalajara	6:3
15.11.15	CD Guadalajara - Real Madrid Castilla	1:2
10.05.15	Real Madrid Castilla - CD Guadalajara	1:1
20.12.14	CD Guadalajara - Real Madrid Castilla	0:0
Spanish LaLiga2
24.02.13	Real Madrid Castilla - CD Guadalajara	2:1
22.09.12	CD Guadalajara - Real Madrid Castilla	3:4

Upcoming Matches