Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 35

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Real Madrid Castilla		Unionistas de Salamanca

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.3	3.7
	1.85	3.4	3.9
	1.92	3.4	4.23
	1.75	3.83	4.21	Watch
	1.85	3.25	3.6
	1.93	3.44	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.79)	3.44 ↓ (3.55)	3.92 ↓ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
49.6%

Draw
26.8%

Unionistas de Salamanca
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

26.2%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

27.7%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Unionistas de Salamanca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Real Madrid Castilla, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unionistas de Salamanca than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Real Madrid Castilla - Unionistas de Salamanca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mestre S. (G) 3. Valdepenas V. 15. Martinez J. 21. Aguado D. 17. Fortea J. 32. Navascues L. 6. Perea C. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 20. Fortuny P. 7. Yanez D. 18. Fettal R.	13. Suarez Coronas Lastra M. (G) 5. Farru 3. Gorjon A. 20. Encuentra J. 2. Olmedo V. 8. Lopez J. 6. Juanje 24. Masllorens J. 23. Pinan A. 11. Gomez A. 21. Marco P.
Substitutes
47. Ciria A. 38. Diego 23. Fati L. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 29. Ortega J. 4. Rivas M. 5. Serrano M. 13. Sunico G. (G) 9. Zuniga L.	12. Artola J. 7. Arvelo A. 1. Carrasco S. (G) 15. Chibozo A. 10. de la Nava C. 29. Hiobi H. 22. Lendinez J. 4. Mayor R. 19. Prada R. 14. Saidi A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Juanje 🟨,
37', Encuentra J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Marco P. ↓, Artola J. ↑,
49', Fettal R. 🟨,
51', Olmedo V. ↓, Prada R. ↑,
61', Yanez D. 🟨,
66', Navascues L. ↓, Diego ↑,
66', Perea C. ↓, Ciria A. ↑,
66', Fettal R. ↓, Ortega J. ↑,
72', Juanje ↓, de la Nava C. ↑,
79', Yanez D. ↓, Iglesias Lois B. ↑,
81', 1 - 0, Ortega J. ⚽,
82', Masllorens J. ↓, Lendinez J. ↑,
82', Pinan A. ↓, Arvelo A. ↑,
89', Ortega J. ↓, Fati L. ↑,
90+10', Artola J. 🟨,
90+11', 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 2.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Real Madrid Castilla may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Real Madrid Castilla is the team to beat.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid Castilla won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 1.3:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Unionistas	6	2	0	4	9:12	-3	6

Last Results with these Odds

Unionistas de Salamanca - the odds 4.25 are the expected chance of winning is 21.87%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
25.04.26	Talavera de la Reina - Real Madrid Castilla	1:2 ✺
14.04.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Ourense CF	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Ferrol - Real Madrid Castilla	0:5 ✺
03.04.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Celta de Vigo B	5:1 ✺
27.03.26	Barakaldo - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WTWWL
- Unionistas de Salamanca
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.04.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Athletic Bilbao B	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Real Avilés - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - CD Guadalajara	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Zamora - Unionistas de Salamanca	2:3 ✺
28.03.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Arenteiro	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.11.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0
Club Friendly
16.08.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Unionistas de Salamanca	0:0
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.04.23	Unionistas de Salamanca - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0
10.09.22	Real Madrid Castilla - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
03.02.19	Unionistas de Salamanca - Real Madrid Castilla	1:4
16.09.18	Real Madrid Castilla - Unionistas de Salamanca	3:0

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