Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 33

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Real Madrid Castilla		Ourense CF

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.1	4.2
	1.85	3.2	4.25
	1.83	3.29	4.35
	1.85	3.31	4.4	Watch
	1.83	2.9	4
	1.9	3.21	4.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.99)	3.17 ↓ (3.29)	4.26 ↑ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
49.6%

Draw
28.9%

Ourense CF
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

28.2%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

27%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Ourense CF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Real Madrid Castilla - Ourense CF Predictions

Users Predictions: Real Madrid Castilla will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mestre S. (G) 2. Jimenez D. 4. Rivas M. 23. Fati L. 3. Valdepenas V. 8. Angel M. (C) 6. Perea C. 10. Palacios C. 20. Fortuny P. 29. Ortega J. 47. Ciria A.	1. Raton A. (G) 2. Coto E. 5. Prado M. 4. Carmona F. (C) 12. Jelbat A. 21. Guerrero A. 24. Moreno C. 8. Ramos J. 11. Aranzabe A. 10. Ochoa M. 9. Sergio Benito
Substitutes
21. Aguado D. 18. Fettal R. 42. Fofana C. 17. Fortea J. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 15. Martinez J. 32. Navascues L. 5. Serrano M. 13. Sunico G. (G) 7. Yanez D. 9. Zuniga L.	7. Bouzaig A. 6. Castillo N. 20. Gueye L. 17. Hernandez R. 16. Munoz D. 14. Perez A. 23. Punzano I. 18. Rabadan D. 15. Rivas L. 3. Sanz H. 22. Yuste A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Sergio Benito ⚽,
36', Aranzabe A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ciria A. ↓, Fettal R. ↑,
46', Ortega J. ↓, Yanez D. ↑,
57', Aranzabe A. ↓, Castillo N. ↑,
57', Ramos J. ↓, Yuste A. ↑,
66', Guerrero A. ↓, Rabadan D. ↑,
66', Ochoa M. ↓, Munoz D. ↑,
71', Fortuny P. ↓, Navascues L. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Navascues L. ⚽,
77', Sergio Benito ↓, Bouzaig A. ↑,
83', Rivas M. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
83', Fati L. ↓, Aguado D. ↑,
90', Jelbat A. 🟨,
90+6', Aguado D. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 15).

Real Madrid Castilla is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ourense CF has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Real Madrid Castilla is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Real Madrid Castilla won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid Castilla - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 46.61%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.04.26	Ferrol - Real Madrid Castilla	0:5 ✺
03.04.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Celta de Vigo B	5:1 ✺
27.03.26	Barakaldo - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Zamora	2:2 ✺
14.03.26	Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWLTW
- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.04.26	Ourense CF - Lugo	4:2 ✺
05.04.26	Real Avilés - Ourense CF	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Ourense CF - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Pontevedra - Ourense CF	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Ourense CF - Ferrol	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.10.25	Ourense CF - Real Madrid Castilla	1:3

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