Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 34

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Prado (Talavera de la Reina)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Talavera de la Reina		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.1	2.3
	2.4	3	2.6
	2.82	3.2	2.35
	2.92	3.3	2.52
	2.63	3.59	2.43	Watch
	2.75	2.9	2.38
	2.97	3.21	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↑ (2.51)	3.19 ↑ (3.13)	2.42 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Talavera de la Reina
33.2%

Draw
28.9%

Real Madrid Castilla
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

29.2%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

28.7%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Talavera de la Reina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Talavera de la Reina than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Talavera de la Reina - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Belman (G) 4. Lopez A. 5. Molina S. 2. Cuenca D. 3. Roig A. 6. Pitu 16. Navarro I. 21. Montero Sergio 14. Molina A. 11. Gallardo Rodriguez E. (C) 7. Di Renzo G.	25. Mestre S. (G) 2. Jimenez D. 15. Martinez J. 3. Valdepenas V. 5. Serrano M. 8. Manuel Angel (C) 14. Cestero Sancho J. 10. Palacios C. 20. Fortuny P. 18. Fettal R. 32. Navascues L.
Substitutes
31. Aduamoah F. 23. Farrando M. 20. Ferni 27. Gil H. 1. Gonzalez J. (G) 9. Moreno M. 24. Nordin M. 26. Sanchez J.	21. Aguado D. 47. Ciria A. 23. Fati L. 17. Fortea J. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 29. Ortega J. 6. Perea C. 4. Rivas M. 13. Sunico G. (G) 7. Yanez D. 9. Zuniga L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Talavera won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Real Madrid Castilla may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Talavera won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:22. (average 1.3:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Talavera won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:16. (average 2.3:4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Talavera de la Reina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.04.26	Lugo - Talavera de la Reina	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Talavera de la Reina - Zamora	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Talavera de la Reina	1:2 ✺
28.03.26	Talavera de la Reina - Tenerife	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	CD Guadalajara - Talavera de la Reina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 TLWTT
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.04.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Ourense CF	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Ferrol - Real Madrid Castilla	0:5 ✺
03.04.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Celta de Vigo B	5:1 ✺
27.03.26	Barakaldo - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Zamora	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
02.11.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Talavera de la Reina	1:0
30.04.23	Talavera de la Reina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:7
10.12.22	Real Madrid Castilla - Talavera de la Reina	0:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
09.05.21	Talavera de la Reina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:4
17.04.21	Real Madrid Castilla - Talavera de la Reina	2:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
04.02.18	Talavera de la Reina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1
16.09.17	Real Madrid Castilla - Talavera de la Reina	2:0

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