Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 5

Date: 12 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Yankel Rosenthal (San Pedro Sula)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV
Usa	Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox


	CD Marathón		Platense

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.65	5.15
	1.58	3.8	6.26
	1.43	4.54	6.44	Watch
	1.53	3.5	5.75
	1.55	3.78	6.3	Watch
	1.66	3.33	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.45)	3.77 ↓ (4.34)	5.78 ↓ (6.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CD Marathón
59.5%

Draw
24.5%

Platense
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64%

21.4%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

19.8%

15.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CD Marathón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Platense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CD Marathón than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Platense than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

CD Marathón - Platense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Marathón (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Platense (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Platense (3.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Platense (2.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Marathón (votes: 1 - 25%). Platense (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rougier J. (G) 60. Arriaga L. 79. Castillo R. 26. Elvir S. 13. Moya B. 6. Orellana A. 27. Perez C. 10. Ramirez D. 21. Ramos O. 4. Rivera J. 8. Sorto Caballero T. A.	18. Orobio Rincon J. A. (G) 27. Espinoza S. 3. Garcia E. 19. Lopez Quinteros C. 2. Mena J. 31. Morales A. 15. Padilla O. 25. Pozantes S. 10. Puerto E. 23. Salinas M. 30. Solano E.
Substitutes
19. Aguilera J. 35. Alvarado 3. Bodden K. 31. Cano D. 7. Castillo I. 2. Figueroa H. 5. Martinez Hernandez F. E. 11. Messiniti N. 22. Nunez M. 30. Sacaza C. 23. Samudio C. (G) 17. Vega Orellana A. N.	22. Aguilar A. 34. Arriola Y. 6. Arzu J. 4. Bernardez H. 29. Canelas J. 28. Carcamo S. (G) 17. Corea R. 7. Flores R. 24. Jhonson P. 5. Rodriguez N. 14. Urbina E. 12. Welcome G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Solano E. ⚽,
45+2', 1 - 1, Ramos O. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 2 - 1, Castillo R. ⚽,
56', Solano E. 🟨,
65', Morales A. ↓, Canelas J. ↑,
68', 2 - 2, Solano E. ⚽,
69', Moya B. ↓, Vega Orellana A. N. ↑,
69', Arriaga L. ↓, Aguilera J. ↑,
69', Castillo R. ↓, Messiniti N. ↑,
71', Padilla O. 🟨,
76', Ramirez D. 🟨,
79', Sorto Caballero T. A. ↓, Castillo I. ↑,
79', Perez C. ↓, Sacaza C. ↑,
88', Solano E. ↓, Arzu J. ↑,
89', Aguilera J. 🟨,
90+3', Canelas J. ↓, Arriola Y. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Triangulares: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marathón won 2.

Recent performances by Marathón have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Platense's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Marathón is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Marathón won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 40:24. (average 2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Marathón won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 21:7. (average 2.1:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Marathon	8	5	2	1	14:6	8	17
12	Platense	8	1	2	5	6:18	-12	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Marathón
Honduras Liga Nacional
08.02.26	CD Marathón - Real España	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Victoria La Ceiba - CD Marathón	0:0 ✺
28.01.26	CD Marathón - Juticalpa	3:0 ✺
25.01.26	Lobos UPNFM - CD Marathón	1:1 ✺
07.01.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - CD Marathón	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTWTL
- CD Platense
Honduras Liga Nacional
08.02.26	Platense - Choloma	1:1 ✺
29.01.26	Motagua - Platense	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Platense - Victoria La Ceiba	1:1 ✺
25.12.25	Olancho - Platense	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Platense - CD Marathón	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
21.12.25	Platense - CD Marathón	2:2
18.12.25	CD Marathón - Platense	3:0
08.11.25	CD Marathón - Platense	1:0
11.09.25	Platense - CD Marathón	1:1
20.04.22	Platense - CD Marathón	1:0
20.01.22	CD Marathón - Platense	1:0
24.10.21	CD Marathón - Platense	1:1

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