Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 12

Date: 22 June 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Rei Pelé (Maceió)

Referee: Pereira Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	CRB Maceio		Guarani

	1	X	2
	1.73	3	5.75	Watch
	1.73	3.2	4.8
	1.75	3.3	5
	1.78	3.35	5.89
	1.78	3.22	5.89
	1.75	3.25	5
	1.75	3.38	5.04
	1.74	3.1	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.5)	3.23 ↓ (3.4)	5.35 ↓ (8.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CRB Maceio
53.5%

Draw
29%

Guarani
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

27.1%

11.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

17.3%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CRB Maceio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that CRB Maceio's form might have worsened.

Guarani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guarani's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CRB Maceio than the current prediction. (-14.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with CRB Maceio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

CRB Maceio - Guarani Predictions

Users Predictions: CRB Maceio will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Matheus Albino (G) 32. Hereda 3. Fabio Alemao 26. Gustavo Henrique 11. Jorge 98. Falcao 17. Romulo 8. Gege 7. Mike 9. Anselmo Ramon (C) 38. Leo Pereira	89. Vladimir (C) 2. Heitor 23. Douglas Bacelar 3. Leo Santos 32. Yuji 5. Anderson Leite 18. Matheus Bueno 10. Luan Dias 30. Airton 99. Caio Dantas 19. Joao Victor
Substitutes
6. Caio Cesar 34. Darlisson 48. Erik 23. Fabio (G) 99. Getulio 37. Heron 35. Joao Neto 5. Lucas Maceio 16. Rai 1. Vitor Caetano (G)	40. Bruno Oliveira 13. Diogo Mateus 31. Douglas Borges (G) 6. Kayque 12. Lucas Adell 21. Lucas Araujo 7. Luccas Paraizo 8. Marlon Douglas 20. Reinaldo
Coaches
Daniel Paulista	Cordeiro M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', Leo Pereira 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Gege ⚽, Leo Pereira (A),
36', Anderson Leite 🟨,
37', Romulo 🟨,
45+2', Heitor ↓, Diogo Mateus ↑,
45+6', Leo Santos 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jorge ↓, Heron ↑,
61', Douglas Bacelar 🟨,
62', Mike ↓, Lucas Maceio ↑,
62', Romulo ↓, Caio Cesar ↑,
66', Lucas Maceio 🟨,
66', Anderson Leite ↓, Reinaldo ↑,
66', Joao Victor ↓, Luccas Paraizo ↑,
75', Airton ↓, Bruno Oliveira ↑,
75', Luan Dias ↓, Lucas Araujo ↑,
80', Reinaldo 🟨,
80', Anselmo Ramon ↓, Joao Neto ↑,
90+3', Falcao ↓, Getulio ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches CRB won 2.

The competitors look crappy now.

Guarani could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently CRB have a series of guest games.

In this match CRB is a favorite.

There will not play in CRB: Caio Cesar (Injury) Saimon (Injury) Willian Formiga (Injury)

There will not play in Guarani: Bruno Mendes (Injury) Marcio Silva (Injury) Pegorari (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches CRB won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-5.

Including matches at home between the teams CRB won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CRB Maceio
Brazilian Serie B
18.06.24	Paysandu - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
15.06.24	América Mineiro - CRB Maceio	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.06.24	CRB Maceio - Fortaleza	2:1 penalties ✺
05.06.24	Fortaleza - CRB Maceio	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
02.06.24	Ponte Preta - CRB Maceio	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TLWLL
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie B
18.06.24	Guarani - Ituano	3:3 ✺
14.06.24	Avaí - Guarani	3:2 ✺
08.06.24	Guarani - Operário Ferroviario	0:1 ✺
04.06.24	Mirassol - Guarani	3:0 ✺
25.05.24	Guarani - Paysandu	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
23.09.23	CRB Maceio - Guarani	1:0
04.06.23	Guarani - CRB Maceio	0:1
11.10.22	Guarani - CRB Maceio	1:0
02.07.22	CRB Maceio - Guarani	1:1
15.10.21	CRB Maceio - Guarani	2:2
13.07.21	Guarani - CRB Maceio	1:0

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