Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 9

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Principe Felipe (Cáceres)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Cacereño		Ourense CF

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.4
	2.1	3.05	3.4
	1.7	3.33	5.24
	1.76	3.59	4.35	Watch
	2.14	3.08	3.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.76)	3.21 ↓ (3.59)	3.97 ↓ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cacereño
47.7%

Draw
28.9%

Ourense CF
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

25.9%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

25.6%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cacereño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cacereño's form might have worsened.

Ourense CF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cacereño than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cacereño, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Cacereño - Ourense CF Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nieves D. (G) 22. Hernandez E. 15. Vicente I. 4. Crespo A. 23. El Goumiri O. 17. Berlanga M. 8. Deco 18. Sanchis R. 16. Gutierrez D. 24. Valdera R. 9. Gomez D.	1. Raton A. (G) 12. Jelbat A. 5. Prado M. 4. Carmona F. 3. Sanz H. 21. Guerrero A. 24. Moreno C. 23. Punzano I. 16. Munoz D. 17. Ouhdadi O. 9. Vazquez K.
Substitutes
3. Barrio J. 5. de Diego J. 7. Fernandez I. 19. Gomez C. 13. Martinez I. (G) 2. Martinez I. 21. Morales A. 6. Rementeria U.	11. Aranzabe A. 10. Camus M. 2. Coto E. 19. Garcia D. 20. Gueye L. 14. Perez A. 15. Piera J. 13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Jelbat A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Vazquez K. ↓, Camus M. ↑,
46', Gomez D. ↓, Gomez C. ↑,
51', Sanchis R. 🟨,
54', Guerrero A. 🟨,
55', Sanchis R. ↓, Fernandez I. ↑,
57', Punzano I. 🟨,
62', Punzano I. ↓, Aranzabe A. ↑,
70', 🟨,
78', Ouhdadi O. ↓, Coto E. ↑,
84', Guerrero A. ↓, Piera J. ↑,
85', Gutierrez D. 🟥,
88', Berlanga M. ↓, Rementeria U. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Ourense CF may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ourense CF has had a series of away games.

In this match, Cacereño is seen as the favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CP Cacereño
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.10.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Cacereño	1:3 ✺
12.10.25	Cacereño - Tenerife	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Lugo - Cacereño	1:0 ✺
27.09.25	Barakaldo - Cacereño	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Cacereño - Mérida AD	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 WTLTW
- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.10.25	Ourense CF - Real Madrid Castilla	1:3 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
15.10.25	Atlètic Lleida - Ourense CF	3:4 penalties ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.10.25	Celta de Vigo B - Ourense CF	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Ferrol - Ourense CF	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
01.10.25	Bergantiños - Ourense CF	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LWTTW

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