Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 8

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio de O Couto (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ourense CF		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	2.88	2.9	2.45
	2.82	3	2.48
	3.02	3.1	2.42
	2.71	2.81	2.86	Watch
	2.8	2.98	2.53
	2.7	3.1	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.65)	2.98 ↓ (3.1)	2.52 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ourense CF
32.6%

Draw
30.9%

Real Madrid Castilla
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

28.9%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

27.9%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ourense CF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Ourense CF - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Real Madrid Castilla (1.77) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid Castilla (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raton A. (G) 12. Jelbat A. 5. Prado M. 4. Carmona F. 3. Sanz H. 8. Ramos J. 24. Moreno C. 16. Munoz D. 21. Guerrero A. 7. Bouzaig A. 17. Ouhdadi O.	1. Fran (G) 2. Jimenez D. 15. Martinez J. 3. Valdepenas V. 5. Serrano M. 8. Angel M. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 28. Martin R. 20. Fortuny P. 9. Zuniga L. 10. Palacios C.
Substitutes
11. Aranzabe A. 10. Camus M. 6. Castillo N. 2. Coto E. 19. Garcia D. 20. Gueye L. 14. Perez A. 15. Piera J. 23. Punzano I. 13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 9. Vazquez K.	21. Aguado D. 33. Castrelo G. 23. Fati L. 17. Fortea J. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 6. Perea C. 4. Rivas M. 13. Sunico G. (G) 7. Yanez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Munoz D. 🟨,
15', Martin R. ↓, Yanez D. ↑,
43', Bouzaig A. 🟨,
45+8', Bouzaig A. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Munoz D. ↓, Camus M. ↑,
57', 0 - 1, Palacios C. ⚽,
65', Ramos J. 🟨,
67', 0 - 2, Valdepenas V. ⚽, Jimenez D. (A),
68', Ouhdadi O. ↓, Castillo N. ↑,
68', Ramos J. ↓, Vazquez K. ↑,
71', Raton A. 🟨,
76', Carmona F. 🟨,
77', 0 - 3, Zuniga L. (Pen),
79', Prado M. ↓, Gueye L. ↑,
79', Guerrero A. ↓, Coto E. ↑,
80', Zuniga L. ↓, Iglesias Lois B. ↑,
80', Angel M. ↓, Perea C. ↑,
83', Cestero Sancho J. ↓, Fortea J. ↑,
83', Palacios C. ↓, Castrelo G. ↑,
88', Serrano M. 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 3, Vazquez K. ⚽,
90+4', Vazquez K. 🟨,
90+9', 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 14).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Ourense CF has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ourense CF
Spanish Copa Federacion
15.10.25	Atlètic Lleida - Ourense CF	3:4 penalties ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.10.25	Celta de Vigo B - Ourense CF	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Ferrol - Ourense CF	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
01.10.25	Bergantiños - Ourense CF	0:2 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.09.25	Ourense CF - Pontevedra	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WTTWL
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.10.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Pontevedra	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Ponferradina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:3 ✺
27.09.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Tenerife	1:3 ✺
21.09.25	Osasuna B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
17.09.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Ferrol	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLLL

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