Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 15

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Mafra		Caldas

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.05	3.25
	2.07	3.33	3.49	Watch
	2.15	3	3.25
	2.2	3.25	3.25	Watch
	2.08	3.1	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.73)	3.15 ↓ (3.31)	3.3 ↓ (4.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
43.2%

Draw
29.1%

Caldas
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

27.5%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

26.1%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mafra's form might have worsened.

Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Caldas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mafra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caldas than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Caldas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Mafra - Caldas Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mafra (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Mafra will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Ribeiro L. (G) 3. Alves K. 39. Andrey 5. Beni D. 2. Camara M. 19. Iheanacho S. 85. Neves L. 9. Niang M. 30. Ninte M. 13. Raposo C. 46. Sambu B.	1. Soares W. (G) 8. Clemente D. 79. Gata J. 17. Goncas 27. Magalhaes M. 30. Monteiro E. 4. Pipo 3. Pires Gomes J. R. 33. Tarzan 2. Yordy Marcelo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Ninte M. ⚽, Neves L. (A),
5', Monteiro E. 🟨,
20', 2 - 0, Niang M. ⚽, Andrey (A),
42', 2 - 1, Monteiro E. ⚽, Tarzan (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Andrey ↓, Pinto R. ↑,
52', Beni D. ↓, Ferreira J. ↑,
53', 3 - 1, Iheanacho S. ⚽,
60', Maneta D. ↓, Ewandro Santos ↑,
61', Magalhaes M. ↓, Alexandre R. ↑,
64', Yordy Marcelo 🟨,
67', Ninte M. ↓, Precatado J. ↑,
73', Gata J. ↓, Farinha L. ↑,
80', Goncas ↓, Chaves G. ↑,
80', Niang M. ↓, Matos R. ↑,
80', Iheanacho S. ↓, Moreira R. ↑,
84', Matos R. 🟨,
89', 3 - 2, Chaves G. ⚽,
90+1', 4 - 2, Matos R. ⚽,
90+2', Matos R. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 5 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

Recent performances by Mafra have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Caldas is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Caldas has had a series of home games.

In this match, Mafra is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mafra won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Mafra won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
20.12.25	Amora - Mafra	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Mafra - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
06.12.25	Académica Coimbra - Mafra	3:3 ✺
30.11.25	Mafra - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Belenenses - Mafra	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWTTL
- SC Caldas
Taça de Portugal
23.12.25	Caldas - Braga	0:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
19.12.25	Caldas - União de Santarém	0:2 ✺
14.12.25	1 Dezembro - Caldas	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Caldas - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Caldas - Amora	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
28.09.25	Caldas - Mafra	1:1
Club Friendly
27.07.24	Caldas - Mafra	0:2
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
18.02.18	Caldas - Mafra	2:2
08.10.17	Mafra - Caldas	1:0
05.03.17	Mafra - Caldas	3:2

Mafra - Caldas: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide