Match Info

League One - Round 8

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Abbey Stadium (Cambridge)

Referee: Toner B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+


	Cambridge United		AFC Wimbledon

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	4.5
	1.85	3.50	4.00
	1.7	3.6	4.65
	1.72	3.95	4.92
	1.82	3.7	4.1	Watch
	1.68	3.9	4.85
	1.67	4.01	4.51	Watch
	1.72	3.9	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (2)	3.82 ↑ (3.38)	4.49 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cambridge United
54.5%

Draw
24.6%

AFC Wimbledon
20.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.7%

27.7%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

28.1%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cambridge United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cambridge United's performance.

AFC Wimbledon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cambridge United than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cambridge United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	10%	20%

Cambridge United - AFC Wimbledon Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Cambridge will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Wimbledon will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cambridge: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Cambridge (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cambridge (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Eastwood J. (G) 15. Heffernan C. 6. Watts K. 22. Bradshaw Z. 8. Moxon O. 4. Ball D. (C) 17. Mpanzu P. 7. Heath I. 10. Knight B. 27. McConnell G. 14. Ahadme G.	39. Bursik J. (G) 33. Ogundere I. 26. Sweeney D. 3. Seddon S. 17. Yiadom A. 8. Maycock C. 12. Smith A. (C) 5. Harrison O. 29. Sasu A. 31. Richards D. 9. Stockley J.
Substitutes
9. Appere L. 32. Efobi D. 13. Gabe Breeze (G) 33. Herd D. 38. Hoddle G. 19. Lavery S. 30. McDougald L.	37. Ashamu R. 22. Horan R. 20. McDonnell J. (G) 19. McNeilly D. 10. Nelson Z.
Coaches
Harris N.	Jackson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Stockley J. ⚽, Yiadom A. (A),
36', Richards D. ↓, Nelson Z. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', McConnell G. ↓, Lavery S. ↑,
52', Yiadom A. 🟨,
59', Mpanzu P. 🟨,
62', Watts K. 🟨,
74', Maycock C. ↓, McNeilly D. ↑,
79', Moxon O. ↓, Hoddle G. ↑,
79', Ahadme G. ↓, Appere L. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 1, Bradshaw Z. ⚽, Mpanzu P. (A),
90+3', Sasu A. ↓, Horan R. ↑,
90+5', Seddon S. 🟨,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 5th in the Promotion ~ League One Playoffs and 7th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cambridge won 3.

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

Cambridge may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Cambridge has faced a series of away games on the road.

In this matchup, Cambridge is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for Cambridge: Bauer P. (Inactive) Hoddle G. (Inactive) McLoughlin S. (Inactive) Stead C. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Wimbledon: Browne M. (Inactive) Cornick H. (Ankle Injury) Stevens M. (Injury) Tilley J. (Injury).

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Cambridge has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 7:6 (averaging 1.2:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cambridge against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 2:4 goals (averaging 0.7:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Cambridge Utd	9	4	4	1	14:11	3	16
12	AFC Wimbledon	9	3	3	3	7:10	-3	12

Outrights of English League One for now

Cambridge Utd: 3.53% AFC Wimbledon: 0.65%

Last Results with these Odds

Cambridge United - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.74%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cambridge United
English EFL Trophy
22.09.26	Gillingham - Cambridge United	1:4 ✺
English League One
19.09.26	Oxford United - Cambridge United	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Cambridge United - Reading	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Burton Albion - Cambridge United	2:2 ✺
01.09.26	Bradford City - Cambridge United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.6 WTWTW
- AFC Wimbledon
English League One
17.09.26	AFC Wimbledon - Milton Keynes Dons	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	AFC Wimbledon - Doncaster Rovers	1:0 ✺
07.09.26	Bromley - AFC Wimbledon	0:2 ✺
02.09.26	Burton Albion - AFC Wimbledon	4:1 ✺
30.08.26	AFC Wimbledon - Wigan Athletic	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
26.03.22	AFC Wimbledon - Cambridge United	0:1
30.10.21	Cambridge United - AFC Wimbledon	1:0
English League Two
02.01.16	Cambridge United - AFC Wimbledon	1:4
18.08.15	AFC Wimbledon - Cambridge United	1:2
24.02.15	Cambridge United - AFC Wimbledon	0:0
29.11.14	AFC Wimbledon - Cambridge United	1:2

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