Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 27

Date: 7 March 2023, Tuesday

Location: Abbey Stadium (Cambridge)

Referee: Howard P. (Eng)


	Cambridge United		Morecambe

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	4
	1.93	3.25	4
	1.94	3.45	4.1
	1.95	3.25	3.8
	1.97	3.36	4.38
	1.95	3.1	4.2
	1.9	3.35	4.3	Watch
	1.96	3.3	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.07)	3.32 ↓ (3.35)	4.08 ↑ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cambridge United
48.6%

Draw
28.4%

Morecambe
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

28%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

28.5%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cambridge United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cambridge United than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.4%	10.3%	17.2%

Cambridge United - Morecambe Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Cambridge will win (votes: 21 - 72.4%). Morecambe will win (votes: 5 - 17.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cambridge: 56.1% – 88.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 20 and 19).

Cambridge has the most likely position - 23 (17.84%), has project points - 44, has currently - 24, has a good chance of relegated (61%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Morecambe has the most likely position - 21 (14.36%), has project points - 46, has currently - 24, has a chance of relegated (46%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 13, importance 58, match rating 35. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cambridge won 5.

Cambridge is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Morecambe is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Cambridge will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Cambridge won 9 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 31-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Cambridge won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cambridge United
English League One
04.03.23	Cambridge United - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
25.02.23	Exeter City - Cambridge United	2:0 ✺
21.02.23	Fleetwood Town - Cambridge United	1:0 ✺
18.02.23	Cambridge United - Oxford United	1:0 ✺
14.02.23	Cambridge United - Cheltenham Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLLWL
- Morecambe
English League One
04.03.23	Morecambe - Bolton Wanderers	0:0 ✺
25.02.23	Fleetwood Town - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
21.02.23	Morecambe - Port Vale	1:0 ✺
18.02.23	Morecambe - Peterborough United	0:3 ✺
14.02.23	Sheffield Wednesday - Morecambe	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
24.09.22	Morecambe - Cambridge United	1:2
09.04.22	Cambridge United - Morecambe	2:1
02.11.21	Morecambe - Cambridge United	0:2
English League Two
02.04.21	Cambridge United - Morecambe	2:1
19.09.20	Morecambe - Cambridge United	0:5
25.01.20	Morecambe - Cambridge United	1:1
29.12.19	Cambridge United - Morecambe	1:0

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