Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 33

Date: 18 February 2023, Saturday

Location: The Mazuma Stadium (Morecambe)

Referee: Handley D. (Eng)


	Morecambe		Peterborough United

	1	X	2
	5.25	4	1.62
	5	3.9	1.63
	5	3.8	1.65
	5.43	4.12	1.64
	5	3.8	1.65
	5.2	4.05	1.62	Watch
	5	3.95	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.13 ↑ (3.95)	3.95 ↑ (3.71)	1.63 ↓ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morecambe
18.4%

Draw
23.9%

Peterborough United
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.7%

25.2%

51.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

24.8%

52%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Morecambe's form might have worsened.

Peterborough United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Peterborough United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peterborough United than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Peterborough United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	12.5%	37.5%

Morecambe - Peterborough United Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Morecambe will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Peterborough will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Morecambe: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 9).

Morecambe has the most likely position - 22 (18.05%), has project points - 44, has currently - 28, has a good chance of relegated (52%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Peterborough has the most likely position - 8 (20.36%), has project points - 68, has currently - 44, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (6%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 18, small importance 30, small match rating 24. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Morecambe is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Peterborough is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Peterborough is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morecambe
English League One
14.02.23	Sheffield Wednesday - Morecambe	3:0 ✺
11.02.23	Morecambe - Forest Green Rovers	1:1 ✺
04.02.23	Derby County - Morecambe	5:0 ✺
28.01.23	Morecambe - Bristol Rovers	5:1 ✺
24.01.23	Ipswich Town - Morecambe	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTLWL
- Peterborough United
English League One
14.02.23	Fleetwood Town - Peterborough United	1:0 ✺
11.02.23	Peterborough United - Bolton Wanderers	0:5 ✺
04.02.23	Forest Green Rovers - Peterborough United	0:2 ✺
28.01.23	Peterborough United - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
16.01.23	Port Vale - Peterborough United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
06.08.22	Peterborough United - Morecambe	3:0

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