Match Info

ENGLAND: League Two - Round 16

Date: 16 November 2024, Saturday

Location: The Mazuma Stadium (Morecambe)

Referee: Kennard-Kettle Z. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Morecambe		Port Vale

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.5	1.75	Watch
	4.2	3.6	1.78
	4.5	3.6	1.78	Watch
	4.51	3.71	1.81
	4.2	3.61	1.82	Watch
	4.8	3.7	1.73
	4.3	3.65	1.79	Watch
	4.5	3.6	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.44 ↑ (4.1)	3.62 ↑ (3.54)	1.78 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morecambe
21.2%

Draw
26%

Port Vale
52.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.6%

26.2%

51.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.1%

25.6%

52.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	0%	88.9%

Morecambe - Port Vale Predictions

Users Predictions: Port Vale will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Burgoyne H. (G) 2. Hendrie L. 14. Williams R. 6. Stott J. (C) 23. Tutonda D. 28. Jones C. 4. White T. 7. Edwards G. 18. Tollitt B. 3. Lewis A. 19. Dackers M.	1. Ripley C. (G) 27. Cover B. 4. Heneghan B. 5. Hall C. (C) 15. Grant C. 10. Chislett E. 20. Sang T. 18. Croasdale R. 11. Curtis R. 17. Paton R. 9. Stockley J.
Substitutes
9. Hope H. 17. Lewis P. 8. Macadam H. 22. Millen R. 11. Slew J. 24. Songo'o Y. 5. Taylor M.	13. Amos B. (G) 37. Baker-Boaitey B. 42. Hart S. 16. Lowe J. 26. Richards R. 6. Smith N. 19. Tolaj L.
Coaches
Adams D.	Moore D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Tutonda D. ↓, Macadam H. ↑,
69', Edwards G. ↓, Lewis P. ↑,
71', Curtis R. ↓, Baker-Boaitey B. ↑,
71', Grant C. ↓, Hart S. ↑,
72', Paton R. ↓, Richards R. ↑,
74', Dackers M. ↓, Hope H. ↑,
83', 0 - 1, Chislett E. ⚽, Stockley J. (A),
83', Chislett E. 🟨,
85', Baker-Boaitey B. 🟨,
87', Cover B. ↓, Smith N. ↑,
89', Jones C. ↓, Slew J. ↑,
90+2', Chislett E. ↓, Lowe J. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 3.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Port Vale is a favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 10:14 (average 0.8:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Morecambe won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:9 (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morecambe
English EFL Trophy
12.11.24	Morecambe - Carlisle United	1:2 ✺
English League Two
09.11.24	Harrogate Town - Morecambe	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
02.11.24	Worthing - Morecambe	0:2 ✺
English League Two
26.10.24	Morecambe - Chesterfield	2:5 ✺
22.10.24	AFC Wimbledon - Morecambe	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWLL
- Port Vale
English EFL Trophy
12.11.24	Port Vale - Wrexham	2:1 penalties ✺
English League Two
09.11.24	Gillingham - Port Vale	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
02.11.24	Port Vale - Barnsley	1:3 ✺
English League Two
26.10.24	Port Vale - AFC Wimbledon	3:2 ✺
22.10.24	Harrogate Town - Port Vale	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
21.02.23	Morecambe - Port Vale	1:0
26.12.22	Port Vale - Morecambe	1:0
English League Two
10.04.21	Port Vale - Morecambe	1:0
03.10.20	Morecambe - Port Vale	1:0
14.01.20	Morecambe - Port Vale	2:1
05.10.19	Port Vale - Morecambe	3:1
16.02.19	Port Vale - Morecambe	0:1

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