Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 35

Date: 4 March 2023, Saturday

Location: The Mazuma Stadium (Morecambe)

Referee: Langford O. (Eng)


	Morecambe		Bolton Wanderers

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.8	1.67
	4.75	3.8	1.66
	5.25	3.8	1.65
	4.6	3.75	1.68
	5.21	3.97	1.68
	4.75	3.7	1.7
	4.75	3.94	1.69	Watch
	4.8	3.9	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.92 ↑ (4.74)	3.83 ↑ (3.8)	1.67 ↑ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morecambe
19.1%

Draw
24.6%

Bolton Wanderers
56.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.5%

24.3%

56.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.1%

23.8%

57.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

The chances for Bolton Wanderers have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The ML Model estimate for Morecambe aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Morecambe - Bolton Wanderers Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Morecambe will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Bolton will win (votes: 9 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bolton: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs)).

Morecambe has the most likely position - 22 (21.15%), has project points - 43, has currently - 31, has a good chance of relegated (61%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has not chance of win league.

Bolton has the most likely position - 6 (24.21%), has project points - 82, has currently - 62, has not chance of relegated, has a good chance of prom. playoffs (74%), has a chance of promoted (23%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 19, importance 45, match rating 32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 0.

Morecambe is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Bolton is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Morecambe could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bolton is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 1 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Morecambe won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morecambe
English League One
25.02.23	Fleetwood Town - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
21.02.23	Morecambe - Port Vale	1:0 ✺
18.02.23	Morecambe - Peterborough United	0:3 ✺
14.02.23	Sheffield Wednesday - Morecambe	3:0 ✺
11.02.23	Morecambe - Forest Green Rovers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLLT
- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
28.02.23	Portsmouth - Bolton Wanderers	3:1 ✺
25.02.23	Bolton Wanderers - Port Vale	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
22.02.23	Accrington Stanley - Bolton Wanderers	0:2 ✺
English League One
18.02.23	Wycombe Wanderers - Bolton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
14.02.23	Bolton Wanderers - Milton Keynes Dons	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
16.08.22	Bolton Wanderers - Morecambe	1:0
08.03.22	Bolton Wanderers - Morecambe	1:1
05.02.22	Morecambe - Bolton Wanderers	1:1
English League Two
24.04.21	Morecambe - Bolton Wanderers	0:1
09.02.21	Bolton Wanderers - Morecambe	1:1
Club Friendly
17.07.15	Morecambe - Bolton Wanderers	2:1
01.08.12	Morecambe - Bolton Wanderers	N/A

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