Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo (Cancún)

Referee: Cruz Garatachea F. (Mex)


	Cancún		Venados

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.65	3.4	4.4
	1.7	3.5	4.55
	1.72	3.65	5.41
	1.93	3.34	3.98	Watch
	1.69	3.64	4.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.64)	3.51 ↓ (3.7)	4.6 ↓ (4.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cancún
53.4%

Draw
26.5%

Venados
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

25%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

23.6%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cancún has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Venados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cancún than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cancún, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Venados than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Cancún - Venados Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Cancún will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Andrade C. (G) 7. Alonzo J. 9. Diaz J. 23. Galindo B. (C) 3. Hernandez J. 6. Ochoa I. 17. Padilla E. 12. Rodriguez J. 24. Unjanque J. 10. Uscanga P. 30. Zabala L.	28. Delgado A. (G) 18. Amador K. 7. Calero J. 2. Casillas J. 19. Catalan A. 8. Dominguez A. 23. Galvan P. 10. Guzman W. (C) 15. Navarrete D. 22. Sancho J. 25. Trejo Castro M. A.
Substitutes
26. Arce E. (G) 14. Campos K. 5. Chavez A. 2. Guzman G. 15. Hernandez M. 18. Montiel S. 4. Reyes R. 20. Rosales A. 28. Solano A. 22. Soria E.	12. Acosta C. 16. Espinosa E. 4. Grijalva A. 3. Levin J. 21. Lopez C. 6. Lopez F. 11. Madrid W. 5. Miranda J. 1. Reyes D. (G) 33. Vidrio N.
Coaches
Bravo M.	Garcia I. C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Galvan P. 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 0, Diaz J. ⚽, Hernandez J. (A),
45+6', Amador K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Zabala L. 🟨,
59', Navarrete D. ↓, Madrid W. ↑,
59', Galvan P. ↓, Lopez C. ↑,
59', Guzman W. ↓, Acosta C. ↑,
61', Diaz J. 🟨,
68', Ochoa I. ↓, Chavez A. ↑,
68', Trejo Castro M. A. ↓, Grijalva A. ↑,
71', Unjanque J. 🟨,
74', Catalan A. 🟨,
79', Rodriguez J. ↓, Campos K. ↑,
88', Catalan A. ↓, Vidrio N. ↑,
88', Unjanque J. ↓, Reyes R. ↑,
90+2', Dominguez A. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cancún won 1.

Cancún is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Venados has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cancún may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cancún is considered a favorite.

We predict that Cancún will win today's game, with odds of 1.68.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Cancún won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 9:20. (average 0.8:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Cancún won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cancún FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
05.09.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Cancún	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	Cancún - Atlético Morelia	5:0 ✺
15.08.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Cancún	0:1 ✺
09.08.25	Cancún - Tlaxcala	3:0 ✺
02.08.25	Dorados - Cancún	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TWWWW
- Venados FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
04.09.25	Venados - Atlético Morelia	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Venados	4:5 ✺
22.08.25	Venados - Atlético La Paz	3:3 ✺
16.08.25	Dorados - Venados	1:0 ✺
08.08.25	Venados - Tapatío	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
15.02.25	Cancún - Venados	1:2
31.08.24	Venados - Cancún	4:0
03.04.24	Venados - Cancún	2:0
19.11.23	Cancún - Venados	2:1
16.11.23	Venados - Cancún	1:0
29.07.23	Cancún - Venados	2:1
18.04.23	Venados - Cancún	1:1

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