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Current Win Probability
Venados 48.1%
Draw 24%
Leones Negros UdeG 27.9%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
48.2%
24.7%
27.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
48.7%
24.4%
26.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Venados has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)
Leones Negros UdeG has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Venados than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (-1.1%)
Venados - Leones Negros UdeG Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
3. Perez S. (G) 32. Aguilar M. 21. Moreno Villegas J. A. 14. Montiel S. 31. Dominguez I. 18. Amador K. 5. Naveda S. 11. Tejeda D. 8. Kilani P. 7. Reyes J. 29. Lora S. (C)
1. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 161. Escalante J. 21. Gonzalez O. 27. Meza U. 5. Torres U. 10. Brigido J. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 6. Marchand J. (C) 34. Hernandez S. A. 20. Gil O. 9. Razo L.
Substitutes
27. Benitez S. 33. Canto J. 23. Castellanos R. (G) 20. Cruz J. 10. Dominguez A. 16. Macias L. 13. Ochoa Brandon 34. Saucedo S. 6. Torres E. 30. Torres M.
15. Carreon A. 35. Cazares J. 19. Loera K. 12. Martin S. (G) 167. Nuno M. 11. Perez J. 33. Sepulveda L.
Coaches
Castro N.
Sosa A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', Amador K. ↓, Dominguez A. ↑,
66', Razo L. ↓, Loera K. ↑,
73', Kilani P. ↓, Torres E. ↑,
77', Brigido J. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
77', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Carreon A. ↑,
79', 1 - 0, Reyes J. ⚽,
83', 1 - 1, Gil O. ⚽, Perez J. (A),
85', Gil O. ↓, Cazares J. ↑,
87', Tejeda D. ↓, Ochoa Brandon ↑,
87', Reyes J. ↓, Macias L. ↑,
87', Aguilar M. ↓, Torres M. ↑,
Preview
A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 4th in the Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals) and 2nd in the Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Venados won 2.
In recent outings, Venados has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Leones Negros UdeG is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Leones Negros UdeG may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Venados holding a narrow advantage.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Venados has recorded 7 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:28 (averaging 0.9:1.4 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Venados against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 13:5 goals (averaging 1.3:0.5 per game).